Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Capital Chronicle


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771597
An earlier entry pointed out how many sub-strategies there are under the title ‘long/short’. Take one step back and consider this table from the 2016 Preqin Global Hedge Fund Report (click for larger version):



September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771598
Long/short – what could go wrong? Hedged positions, protection etc etc etc. And yet there are headlines like this one:

Here’s Why Long / Short Hedge Funds Are Getting Hammered

One of the problematic aspects of such an approach is that “long/short” is a hard category ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771599

It frequently is to those in the hole. Or as Professor Thaler of The Big Short fame says:

“Just buying cheap stocks doesn’t do you any good unless they get less cheap soon”


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771600


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771596
Most if not all advertising by financial services businesses is aspirational rather than functional. That is, the quality of the product is secondary to what it can do for your image and lifestyle.

Usually the spots ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771595
Keeping in similar vein to a number of the previous entries about the mysteries of defining, selecting and tracking hedge fund strategies here is a 2015 paper by Swiss wealth manager Pictet titled “Hedge fund indices: how representative are they?

Amongst its gems covering the biases ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771592

“It is usually agreed that casinos should, in the public interest, be inaccessible and expensive. And perhaps the same is true of Stock Exchanges. That ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771593
It is sometimes easy to treat economic policy in the abstract and overlook its human cost. Or make claims involving the Greater Good. Such claims always merit close scrutiny. This Bloomberg piece by Narayana ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771594
If tomorrow there was a sand shortage in the Sahara it would befuddle many. A close second is how after many years of expensive oil prices Venezulea (highest proven reserves in the world) is now asking the ladies to stop using hairdryers so that the country can negotiate ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1771591

Now Capitalized PrudentlyA decade ago this entry chronicling the incredible chase for the UK’s NCP Group’s car ...