Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Capital Chronicle

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502441
Vernimmen produce sharp financial snippets in their newsletters. Regularly, however, they publish something that produces more questions than answers.

Take this chart/text of the financing choices made by firms with turnover greater than EUR 500m in various countries:

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502442
Little pre-abstract primer for this paper:
Detective Del Spooner: Human beings have dreams. Even dogs have dreams, but not you, you are just ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502443
Fascinating paper from Robert Treue III’s Barnegat Fund documenting what has been called in the popular press the largest arbitrage ever recorded. In the financial upheaval around the opening of this trade in late 2008 the fund was down 37%. But he had the ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502444
Original here.

Adulterated below.

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502440
Greek Credit Default Swaps restarted trade in May since when the country's risk profile has trended down versus competitors such as Argentina, Cyprus and Venezuela! But still some ground to make up to get down to...Iraq.

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502439
Macro vs micro is often a conundrum.

Consider this report from Deutsche issued yesterday. Page 20 begins "How to position for a China rebound". Basically it is a call to long copper and maybe punt on domestic thermal coal investment.

Elsewhere an examination of Chinese companies ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502436
Yes, the metaphoric jargon jungle has expanded to include EAGLES and Nests according to BBVA research. Nice graphics tho:

The full Emerging And Growth Leading Economies report with its fearless 10 year forecasts ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502437
Great new leading indicator for literary mood.


For the 20th century since the Depression, we find a strong correlation between a ‘literary misery index’ derived from English language books and a moving average of the previous decade of the annual U.S. ...

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502438
Apparently they really are called this within the employ of pharma companies.

Good news: GW Pharmaceuticals are hiring.

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502435

More anti-bank developments reported here by Dealbook featuring, amongst others, Preet Bharara the US attorney in Manhattan. It was Bharara who took down Galleon and saw that Rajaratnam got jail time.