Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Capital Chronicle

June 11, 2016, 1:03 pm, 1644584
It is sometimes easy to treat economic policy in the abstract and overlook its human cost. Or make claims involving the Greater Good. Such claims always merit close scrutiny. This Bloomberg piece by Narayana ...

April 11, 2016, 1:03 am, 1625381
If tomorrow there was a sand shortage in the Sahara it would befuddle many. A close second is how after many years of expensive oil prices Venezulea (highest proven reserves in the world) is now asking the ladies to stop using hairdryer so that the country can negotiate ...

April 4, 2016, 1:03 am, 1623439
Keeping in similar vein to a number of the previous entries about the mysteries of defining, selecting and tracking hedge fund strategies here is a 2015 paper by Swiss wealth manager Pictet titled “Hedge fund indices: how representative are they?

Amongst its gems covering the biases ...

March 28, 2016, 1:03 am, 1621432

March 14, 2016, 3:03 am, 1617463
An earlier entry pointed out how many sub-strategies there are under the title ‘long/short’. Take one step back and consider this table from the 2016 Preqin Global Hedge Fund Report (click for larger version):

March 7, 2016, 1:03 am, 1615374
Long/short – what could go wrong? Hedged positions, protection etc etc etc. And yet there are headlines like this one:

Here’s Why Long / Short Hedge Funds Are Getting Hammered

One of the problematic aspects of such an approach is that “long/short” is a hard category ...

March 2, 2016, 5:03 am, 1614021

It frequently is to those in the hole. Or as Professor Thaler of The Big Short fame says:

“Just buying cheap stocks doesn’t do you any good unless they get less cheap soon”

February 29, 2016, 3:03 am, 1613170

February 24, 2016, 5:03 am, 1611593

July 5, 2015, 1:03 am, 1502435

More anti-bank developments reported here by Dealbook featuring, amongst others, Preet Bharara the US attorney in Manhattan. It was Bharara who took down Galleon and saw that Rajaratnam got jail time.