Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Capital Chronicle

October 9, 2014, 9:03 am, 1348408
Three econometricians are out hunting. They spot a stag. Given this is a story about economists let us assume it is a deaf stag.

The first econometrician aims, fires but misses to the left by a metre. The second econometrician takes ...

August 5, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1311911
Yes, the metaphoric jargon jungle has expanded to include EAGLES and Nests according to BBVA research. Nice graphics tho:

The full Emerging And Growth Leading Economies report with its fearless 10 year forecasts ...

August 5, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1311909
If only Mr. Rogoff had waited a couple of weeks before reviewing Mr. Piketty's opus here the result might have been far more entertaining (as well as thought-provoking).

Why? Mr. Piketty got the R&R treatment from the FT this week (right here, you ...

August 5, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1311910

More anti-bank developments reported here by Dealbook featuring, amongst others, Preet Bharara the US attorney in Manhattan. It was Bharara who took down Galleon and saw that Rajaratnam got jail time.

July 7, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1297694
This from Goldman Sachs' Top of Mind Global Macro Research report of 25 Jun, 2014:

Although the detail within the GS report is balanced this shorter and sharper piece from ...

July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294970

Background here and here.

July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294969
Original here.

Adulterated below.

July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294968
Fascinating paper from Robert Treue III’s Barnegat Fund documenting what has been called in the popular press the largest arbitrage ever recorded. In the financial upheaval around the opening of this trade in late 2008 the fund was down 37%. But he had the ...

July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294967
Little pre-abstract primer for this paper:
Detective Del Spooner: Human beings have dreams. Even dogs have dreams, but not you, you are just ...

July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294966
Vernimmen produce sharp financial snippets in their newsletters. Regularly, however, they publish something that produces more questions than answers.

Take this chart/text of the financing choices made by firms with turnover greater than EUR 500m in various countries: