Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

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Capital Chronicle


January 21, 2015, 10:21 am, 1407328

“We have this imminent bond-buying by the ECB -- at least that’s what everybody is expecting -- and if euro-zone yields are falling that makes Treasury yields relatively attractive, even at these rates,” said Philip Marey, a senior market economist at Rabobank Groep in Utrecht, the Netherlands.(link)

The ...


January 8, 2015, 11:03 am, 1400927
Reporters Without Frontiers produced this report for 2014 on the dangers of practicing their metier around the globe. France joined the top 5 yesterday in a shockingly dreadful manner.


December 24, 2014, 11:03 am, 1394418
Nice little graphic from the US Global Investors website:

(link here to article)

Whatever OPEC says there is a feeling that the pre-shale days are done. But perhaps more on ...


December 23, 2014, 11:03 am, 1393776
Someone took the trouble to quantify what most owners of small French business structures (ie under 250 employees) have known for a long time: they are getting a seriously bad deal compared to, erm, just about every peer one can think of.

The following table comes from ...


November 20, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1375218
...but a little bit helps.



If your browser does not display the graphic the full article is here.


November 6, 2014, 7:03 am, 1365540
Two competing – but sometimes overlapping – approaches to relative value / pairs trading are to take either a fundamental ‘signal’ view based on changes to factors such as the accounts, the economy, the CFO’s penchant for recognizing revenue early and so on; and the ‘noise’ approach ...


October 9, 2014, 9:03 am, 1348408
Three econometricians are out hunting. They spot a stag. Given this is a story about economists let us assume it is a deaf stag.

The first econometrician aims, fires but misses to the left by a metre. The second econometrician takes ...


August 5, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1311911
Yes, the metaphoric jargon jungle has expanded to include EAGLES and Nests according to BBVA research. Nice graphics tho:

The full Emerging And Growth Leading Economies report with its fearless 10 year forecasts ...


August 5, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1311909
If only Mr. Rogoff had waited a couple of weeks before reviewing Mr. Piketty's opus here the result might have been far more entertaining (as well as thought-provoking).

Why? Mr. Piketty got the R&R treatment from the FT this week (right here, you ...


August 5, 2014, 7:03 pm, 1311910

More anti-bank developments reported here by Dealbook featuring, amongst others, Preet Bharara the US attorney in Manhattan. It was Bharara who took down Galleon and saw that Rajaratnam got jail time.