Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Capital Chronicle

January 16, 2017, 5:03 am, 1710789

“It is usually agreed that casinos should, in the public interest, be inaccessible and expensive. And perhaps the same is true of Stock Exchanges. That ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673955
At least the Netherlands, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta did not join the hypocrisy by including anyone on their lists.

Last Wednesday the EU Commission published a list of 30 countries, including Barbados, that it describes as non-cooperative jurisdictions on tax matters. The ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673956
Where did Canada, Spain and Mexico go...
(Source: CNN via dadaviz)

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673957

“We have this imminent bond-buying by the ECB -- at least that’s what everybody is expecting -- and if euro-zone yields are falling that makes Treasury yields relatively attractive, even at these rates,” said Philip Marey, a senior market economist at Rabobank Groep in Utrecht, the Netherlands.(link)

The ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673954

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673952

It frequently is to those in the hole. Or as Professor Thaler of The Big Short fame says:

“Just buying cheap stocks doesn’t do you any good unless they get less cheap soon”

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673949
Most if not all advertising by financial services businesses is aspirational rather than functional. That is, the quality of the product is secondary to what it can do for your image and lifestyle.

Usually the spots ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673950
An earlier entry pointed out how many sub-strategies there are under the title ‘long/short’. Take one step back and consider this table from the 2016 Preqin Global Hedge Fund Report (click for larger version):

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673951
Long/short – what could go wrong? Hedged positions, protection etc etc etc. And yet there are headlines like this one:

Here’s Why Long / Short Hedge Funds Are Getting Hammered

One of the problematic aspects of such an approach is that “long/short” is a hard category ...

September 18, 2016, 11:03 pm, 1673953