Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Capital Chronicle


July 7, 2014, 5:03 pm, 1297694
This from Goldman Sachs' Top of Mind Global Macro Research report of 25 Jun, 2014:


Although the detail within the GS report is balanced this shorter and sharper piece from ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294972
The choice would seem clear enough:


But two funny things happened this week to Porsche. The first: CEO, Matthias Mueller, remarked that he anticipated flat demand into 2013 despite great ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294973
Bloomberg today published this article on deposit flight from weaker to stronger members of the Eurozone banking fraternity.

One might wonder if there is a relative value opportunity in this – for example, ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294974
Apple vs Samsung (cointegrated spread w/Kalman filter adaptive beta)
Little 'blog-app' for you.

Does it ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294971
Brilliant. Not sure what it says about Merrill Lynch's training methods though.

Favourite quote from the 'Transcript' tab (and it was a hard decision):

"Knight ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294969
Original here.

Adulterated below.



July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294966
Vernimmen produce sharp financial snippets in their newsletters. Regularly, however, they publish something that produces more questions than answers.

Take this chart/text of the financing choices made by firms with turnover greater than EUR 500m in various countries:


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294967
Little pre-abstract primer for this paper:
Detective Del Spooner: Human beings have dreams. Even dogs have dreams, but not you, you are just ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294968
Fascinating paper from Robert Treue III’s Barnegat Fund documenting what has been called in the popular press the largest arbitrage ever recorded. In the financial upheaval around the opening of this trade in late 2008 the fund was down 37%. But he had the ...


July 2, 2014, 11:03 pm, 1294970


Background here and here.