January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
The full Emerging And Growth Leading Economies report with its fearless 10 year forecasts ...
Favourite quote from the 'Transcript' tab (and it was a hard decision):
Take this chart/text of the financing choices made by firms with turnover greater than EUR 500m in various countries:
Good news: GW Pharmaceuticals are hiring.
Consider this report from Deutsche issued yesterday. Page 20 begins "How to position for a China rebound". Basically it is a call to long copper and maybe punt on domestic thermal coal investment.
Elsewhere an examination of Chinese companies ...
Detective Del Spooner: Human beings have dreams. Even dogs have dreams, but not you, you are just ...