Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

October 12, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1557094

Angus Deaton, 69, a Princeton University econometrician, has been awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize in economic sciences for forty years of work on consumer behavior, concentrating in later years on well-being among the poor in the developing world.

His 1980 treatise, Economics and Consumer Behavior (Oxford), with John ...

October 11, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1556523

It’s been almost exactly seven years since a sudden and mysterious stampede among financial institutions threated a second Great Depression. The Federal Reserve Board, backed by Congress and joined by other central banks around the world, halted the systemic run, with banks demanding cash from one another, with an equally ...

October 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1553077

For four months, Economic Principals has been writing about how the Panic of 2007-­08 ­has come to be understood. Laying out the argument has taken longer than I expected.

Now it’s Ben Bernanke’s turn. His book, The Courage to Act: A Memoir of the Crisis and its Aftermath ...

September 27, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1549855

So much for the first two depressions, the one that happened in the twentieth century, and the other that didn’t happen in the twenty-first.  What about that third depression?  The presumptive one that threatens somewhere in the years ahead.

Avoiding the second disaster, when a full-blown systemic panic erupted in financial ...

September 20, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1546663

It was a late-night email in February 2010 that brought me into the story: a boilerplate circular from an author about his otherwise unheralded book, Except for the title, Slapped by the Invisible Hand: The Panic of 2007 (Oxford, 2009) looked unpromising: a volume in an obscure series, ...

September 13, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1543265

It is time, finally, to return to the crisis of 2008, to the conference at Jackson Hole, August 21-23, where we began.  We know now that the policy makers who stayed home, in Washington, New York, London. Frankfurt and Basel, had been seeking for a year to defuse the situation ...

September 6, 2015, 10:34 am, 1539981

Let’s go back to Mayday, 1975, the end of fixed commissions on the New York Stock Exchange and the beginning of the financial deregulation movement in the United States. The advent of competition among Wall Street investment banks seemed like a little thing at the time.

But then so did an ...

August 30, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1536403

The prophet Elijah’s most famous forecast (I Kings 18:44) – the sudden storm, deduced from inconspicuous change, that ended a three-year drought – became a cliché in business journalism in the 1970s, as one industry after another was overtaken by rapid change that it hadn’t anticipated. There were no ...

August 23, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1532901

Terry Vaughn, a distinguished and widely-admired economics editor, died unexpectedly earlier this month in Princeton, N.J., of a stroke.  He was 68.

Peter Dougherty, director of Princeton University Press, prepared a summary of his friend’s publishing career:

Terry began… in 1971 as a sales representative for the then-college department at Oxford University ...

August 16, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1529328

The rivalry between Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman continued to the 1970s, but it shifted to new ground – to developments in the rapidly-expanding field of finance.   Samuelson was an active contributor, both with the research he described as his “Sunday painting,” and as a market participant. Friedman was more ...