Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

July 24, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1656622

David Brooks, of The New York Times, wrote the single best piece I read last week on the Republican convention: “Death of the Party.” Like him, I was riveted by Donald Trump’s acceptance speech. The scene seemed straight out of one of those dystopian Batman movies of the ...

July 17, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1654394

There is no point in asking Donald Trump about his economists.  It hasn’t been that been that kind of a campaign.  In May the businessman reached out to Stephen Moore, of the Heritage Foundation, and CNBC television host Lawrence Kudlow, to help cut the $10 trillion cost ...

July 10, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1652426

At the end of a turbulent week, I wrote an angry piece that, when it was done, was neither fair nor in any sense complete. Fractious times! I spiked it.

See you here next week.

July 3, 2016, 8:34 pm, 1650597

The History of Economics Society met last month at Duke University. Mauro Boianovsky, of the Universidade de Brasilia, presided.

Bradford DeLong, of the University of California at Berkeley, gave one plenary address (“The Confidence Fairy in Historical Perspective”); Guillermo Calvo, of Columbia University, a second (“Macroeconomics in the Times ...

June 26, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1648631

My English friend first noticed the tendency years ago when UK football hooligans began wearing the red and white Cross of St. George to matches in preference to the Union Jack. The latter ensign dated from 1606, when James I ordered the blue and white St. Andrew’s ...

June 19, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1646645

EP is traveling, attending the annual conference of the History of Economics Society,  this year meeting at Duke University.  

Back next week!

June 13, 2016, 12:34 am, 1644739

One consequence of the financial crisis is that economists have stopped talking about cash and money in the bank and begun talking about “safe assets” instead.

Everybody understands the usefulness of cash. Most know about the convenience and relatively few limitations of money in the bank. But safe assets require some ...

June 5, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1642710

Despite its longstanding interest in the problem of money (beginning with getting more of it), Economic Principals has been reluctant to turn to coverage of banking because it’s essentially a full-time, boring job, for writer and reader alike, and we seek to cast a pretty wide net. A Wall Street ...

May 29, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1640758

There’s a stack of books on my desk, several of which would be sparking widespread discussion in ordinary times.  Four stand out:

Five Easy Theses: Commonsense Solutions to America’s Greatest Economic Challenges (Houghton Mifflin, 2016), by James Stone; Learning By Doing: The Real Connection between Innovation, Wages, and Wealth (Yale, ...

May 22, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1638795

Journalist Andrew Sullivan speculated in New York magazine earlier this month that US democracy is ripe for a tyrant, and that the candidacy of Donald Trump is potentially “an extinction-level event.”  Jacob Weisberg, editor-in-chief of the Slate Group, who seems to me (and to the Financial Times) ...