Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

Economic Principals (David Warsh)

November 22, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1580401

It was Isaac Newton who coined the terms centrifugal and centripetal to describe the tendencies of force either to flee or seek the center of a system. Twenty-five years after the end of the Cold War, centripetal forces are reasserting themselves in international relations and domestic politics, in the form of ...

November 15, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1576752

An especially interesting contretemps in economics has been resolved with a trade of sorts that promises gains in two places.

It was just two years ago that Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, fired two researchers and demoted a third, Kei-Mu Yi, head of his research department. ...

November 8, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1572682

By the time the story EP chased this week proved to  be out of reach, it was too late in the game to substitute another.

Back next week!

November 1, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1568012

The biggest displacement of persons since World War II poses a far more serious threat to the European Union than the Euro-crisis ever did. The migrant crisis is putting severe strain on domestic politics in every member nation, especially the biggest and most important one. I don’t often travel to ...

October 26, 2015, 10:34 am, 1563860

It’s hard to think about the United States’ place in the world without maintaining an underlying sense of its government’s direction.  Hillary Clinton presumably clinched the Democratic Party nomination last week.  Attention will swing now to the Republican primaries.

Jeb Bush may yet be his party’s nominee. That’s what I expected ...

October 19, 2015, 8:34 am, 1560155

There was great excitement in China over the award of a Nobel Prize to a Chinese pharmacologist for deriving the antimalarial drug artemisinin from a plant used in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), as Denis Normile reported in Science from Shanghai. Was this a victory for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), ...

October 12, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1557094

Angus Deaton, 69, a Princeton University econometrician, has been awarded the 2015 Nobel Prize in economic sciences for forty years of work on consumer behavior, concentrating in later years on well-being among the poor in the developing world.

His 1980 treatise, Economics and Consumer Behavior (Oxford), with John ...

October 11, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1556523

It’s been almost exactly seven years since a sudden and mysterious stampede among financial institutions threated a second Great Depression. The Federal Reserve Board, backed by Congress and joined by other central banks around the world, halted the systemic run, with banks demanding cash from one another, with an equally ...

October 5, 2015, 12:34 am, 1553077

For four months, Economic Principals has been writing about how the Panic of 2007-­08 ­has come to be understood. Laying out the argument has taken longer than I expected.

Now it’s Ben Bernanke’s turn. His book, The Courage to Act: A Memoir of the Crisis and its Aftermath ...

September 27, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1549855

So much for the first two depressions, the one that happened in the twentieth century, and the other that didn’t happen in the twenty-first.  What about that third depression?  The presumptive one that threatens somewhere in the years ahead.

Avoiding the second disaster, when a full-blown systemic panic erupted in financial ...