Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Economic Principals (David Warsh)


September 25, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1678362

As a newspaperman, I’ve been writing about the global economy and its national components practically since I began. They’re familiar concepts. But where did such constructs come from? And what exactly do they mean? I was happy to have a couple of days to spend last week at a conference ...


September 18, 2016, 8:34 pm, 1673898

Victory is claimed by all, defeat assigned to one alone, wrote the Roman historian Tacitus.  That’s certainly the case with the emerging field described as behavioral economics. Thus Richard Thaler, of the Booth School of Business of the University of Chicago, in his autobiography, Misbehaving: The Making of Behavior Economics, ...


September 11, 2016, 8:34 pm, 1671990

Economic Principals is traveling, gathering information, and will return next week.


September 4, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1670114

The phrase “thought leader” is sometimes heard in economists’ conversations, a tag for someone whose work is especially influential, often within and between particular departments. It’s an elusive concept, popularized in a larger sphere by TED talks to the point of brutal parody. Yet I know a thought ...


August 28, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1668249

Towards the end The Euro and the Battle of Ideas (Princeton, 2016), by Markus Brunnermeier, Harold James and Jean-Pierre Landau, the authors observe that most of the debate about the economic crisis of the European Union takes place in the English-language press: the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, ...


August 21, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1666343

I have continued thinking about the Reagan presidency, by mulling over origins of “the Turn.” The Turn is the most satisfying term I know for the global movement that, beginning in the 1970s, affected about equally the Second World, the Third, and the First.  Everyday usage in the German-speaking lands ...


August 14, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1664233

When I compared Robert Bartley to Walter Lippmann the other day as having been the most influential economic journalist of his age, I soon realized that hardly anyone knew what I was talking about.  Bartley (1937-2003) for thirty years had been editor of the editorial page of The ...


August 7, 2016, 10:34 am, 1661822

When a co-founder of the Russian Anti-Doping Agency died unexpectedly, in February,  a couple of months after the world anti-doping authority accused Russia of widespread state-sponsored cheating and corruption, it didn’t make the news. When his 52-year-old successor died two weeks later, of a heart attack, after cross -country ...


July 31, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1659275

The disparity between political conventions was striking.  The Democrats were in good shape. The Republicans were a mess. Yet, as New York Times columnist David Brooks observed on PBS television, a sense of loss, of grief, pervaded both. What is that about?

Much more than individual losses were at issue; the ...


July 24, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1656622

David Brooks, of The New York Times, wrote the single best piece I read last week on the Republican convention: “Death of the Party.” Like him, I was riveted by Donald Trump’s acceptance speech. The scene seemed straight out of one of those dystopian Batman movies of the ...