Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

July 20, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1303739

We wouldn’t be talking this summer about a body of work known as “disruption theory” if its principal author, Clayton Christensen, of Harvard Business School, hadn’t turned up as the featured expert on coping with change at The New York Times and Harvard University, two  institutions much concerned with maintaining ...

July 13, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1300329

Economic Principals spent the week reporting and is not writing this week.


July 6, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1297211

It was about a year ago that Paul Krugman asked, “[W]hatever happened to New Growth Theory?”  The headline of the item on the blog with which the Nobel laureate supplements his twice-weekly columns for The New York Times telegraphed his answer: The New Growth Fizzle.  He wrote:

For a while, ...

June 29, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1292923

It was business page news last week that George Stephanopoulos is to become the “chief anchor” at ABC News, meaning he will lead the network’s coverage whenever there is breaking news. Stephanopoulos isn’t replacing Diane Sawyer as anchor of ABC’s evening news broadcast when she steps down in August.  ...

June 22, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1289742

Chances are, unless you are an MBA, you’ve never read anything by business guru Clayton Christensen, the author of a series of self-help business books beginning with The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, in1997. Now, however, an interesting brouhaha has erupted surrounding Harvard ...

June 15, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1286574

One of these days, there’s going to be a book about the financial crisis as good as Peter Baker’s book about the US response to 9/11,  Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House (Doubleday, 2013). Baker’s account, which presents George W. Bush as “the Decider,” at ...

June 8, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1283299

“We don’t recall the Red Army took part in D-Day,” grumbled the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal, at the news that Vladimir Putin had been invited to D-Day celebrations in France last week, even as he was shut out of the G7 meetings in Brussels.

Seventy years after the ...

June 2, 2014, 2:34 am, 1280228

PALO ALTO — Former Secretary of State George Shultz repeatedly stole the show last week at a Hoover Institution conference on central banking practices here, no time more decisively than when he pronounced a benediction on the conference dinner.

The meeting, Frameworks for Central Banking n the Next Century, ...

May 25, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1277131

The Financial Times headline yesterday all but smirked. “Star economist Piketty did his sums wrong in bestseller that tapped inequality zeitgeist.”  The story dominated the front page.

The large photo, which captured Piketty’s defensive, appraising gaze in some earlier q&a session, bore the caption, “Pause for thought: a FT investigation ...

May 18, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1273635

For all the reporting about the unceremonious manner in which Arthur O. Sulzberger Jr. replaced executive editor Jill Abramson with Dean Baquet, the strongest evidence that the needle on his tenure as publisher of The New York Times has reached the danger zone is the company’s internal ...