Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Economic Principals (David Warsh)


September 24, 2017, 5:04 pm, 1778908

The abrupt deterioration in US-Russian relations that began in February 2014, when Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovych fled Kiev on the last day of the Sochi Olympics, just as Russia sought to show its best face to the world in an elaborate closing ceremony,  is the most serious crossroads in the ...


September 17, 2017, 7:44 pm, 1776489

The story raised eyebrows in my circles.  Vladimir Putin had dispatched one of his diplomats to the State Department in April to deliver a bold proposal:  an across-the-board re-normalization of the many channels that had been severed after Moscow’s military interventions in Ukraine ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772106

Federal Reserve Board Governor Janet Yellen’s four-year term as Chair expires in February. The conventional wisdom is that, when it does, the president’s choice will be between reappointing her or preferring National Economic Adviser Gary Cohn, former president of Goldman, Sachs.

Which makes it interesting that Fed vice chair Stanley ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772107

It turns out that the North Korean missile confrontation is, in the first instance, an economic problem. China and the US agree that Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program must be stopped.  Japan and South Korea concur.

The difficulty has to do with dismantling North Korea’s outsized nuclear industry without touching off an ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772104

It began as a bootstrap adventure:  a pair of physicians, practicing in a Bavarian backwater, recognized the extent of damage to German science that had occurred since 1933.  Four years after World War II had ended, students’ isolation from the international conversation about the frontiers of medical knowledge was ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772105

LINDAU, Germany – EP spent most of last week at the triennial Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences in this old lakeside resort in southwestern Bavaria – some 350 young economists from 66 countries, sixteen Nobel laureates in the economic sciences, and ninety British, European, and Latin American journalists.

Not ...


September 12, 2017, 1:14 pm, 1772103

The fine new biography Mikhail Gorbachev: His Life and Times (Norton), by William Taubman, of Amherst College, is just what we don’t need today. An interesting and decent man, Gorbachev steered the Soviet Union into its transition in 1985, then made a mess of it, turning a collapsing economy over ...


August 6, 2017, 8:34 pm, 1769893

It’s not easy to find a disinterested and well-informed view of the Russian economy these days. I don’t know a better source among economists than Kenneth Rogoff, of Harvard University.

The former chief economist of the IMF (2001-03) has no axe to grind as far as I can tell, beyond a ...