Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

June 26, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1648631

My English friend first noticed the tendency years ago when UK football hooligans began wearing the red and white Cross of St. George to matches in preference to the Union Jack. The latter ensign dated from 1606, when James I ordered the blue and white St. Andrew’s ...

June 19, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1646645

EP is traveling, attending the annual conference of the History of Economics Society,  this year meeting at Duke University.  

Back next week!

June 13, 2016, 12:34 am, 1644739

One consequence of the financial crisis is that economists have stopped talking about cash and money in the bank and begun talking about “safe assets” instead.

Everybody understands the usefulness of cash. Most know about the convenience and relatively few limitations of money in the bank. But safe assets require some ...

June 5, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1642710

Despite its longstanding interest in the problem of money (beginning with getting more of it), Economic Principals has been reluctant to turn to coverage of banking because it’s essentially a full-time, boring job, for writer and reader alike, and we seek to cast a pretty wide net. A Wall Street ...

May 29, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1640758

There’s a stack of books on my desk, several of which would be sparking widespread discussion in ordinary times.  Four stand out:

Five Easy Theses: Commonsense Solutions to America’s Greatest Economic Challenges (Houghton Mifflin, 2016), by James Stone; Learning By Doing: The Real Connection between Innovation, Wages, and Wealth (Yale, ...

May 22, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1638795

Journalist Andrew Sullivan speculated in New York magazine earlier this month that US democracy is ripe for a tyrant, and that the candidacy of Donald Trump is potentially “an extinction-level event.”  Jacob Weisberg, editor-in-chief of the Slate Group, who seems to me (and to the Financial Times) ...

May 15, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1636725

The novelist concerned with the culture of a particular city at a particular time is a familiar figure. To find a home in the market for fiction, often such authors have resorted to crime.  Among the several that I have read with enthusiasm over the years are Dorothy Sayers, on ...

May 8, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1634423

Donald Trump has engineered an unfriendly takeover of the Republican Party.

May 1, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1631910

Dedicated as it is to “commentary on the production and distribution of economic ideas,” Economic Principals paused at the news last week that Leonard Riggio, founder and chairman of Barnes & Noble, Inc., plans to retire this autumn.  He is 75.

I wrote an article about Riggio in 1974, three ...

April 24, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1629514

Victory in the New York state primary seems to have all but clinched the Democratic nomination for Hillary Clinton. I won’t be surprised if this week’s  quintet of northeast primaries puts Donald Trump so close to the top as to diminish the suspense surrounding the Republican convention.

So it is an ...