Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

October 23, 2016, 8:34 pm, 1685976

A propaganda war bubbled up in London last week as an antiquated Russian aircraft carrier steamed down the English Channel, on its way to the coast of Syria.

NatWest, subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Scotland Group, which is mostly owned by the British government, announced that it planned to ...

October 16, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1684066

PUEBLA CITY, Mexico – The Fourth Annual IberoAmerican Seminar on Science, Technology and Innovation Journalism unspooled here last week. Puebla, if you don’t know (I didn’t), is the fourth-largest city in Mexico, capital of one of its thirty-two states, situated eighty miles southeast of Mexico City on the colonial ...

October 11, 2016, 8:34 am, 1682653

The Who? among those recognized by a Nobel Prize in the Economic Sciences is seldom surprising. It’s the when that usually catches auditors unaware.

Take contract theory, and the work by Oliver Hart, of Harvard University, and Bengt Holmström, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, that the Royal Swedish Academy of ...

October 9, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1682100

When the Nobel Prizes were established, in 1901, the Nobel Foundation for perhaps a decade sought to spirit laureates into Stockholm in order that they should be available when their recognition was announced. The world was smaller then. The Swedes gave up, in favor of telegrams, after reporters began staking out ...

October 3, 2016, 12:34 am, 1680241

When former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announced his candidacy in January 2015,  I was enthusiastic, largely on foreign policy grounds. It seemed he might champion the sort of conservative internationalism that characterized his  father’s one-term presidency.  I didn’t pay much attention to his views of domestic policy, but ...

September 25, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1678362

As a newspaperman, I’ve been writing about the global economy and its national components practically since I began. They’re familiar concepts. But where did such constructs come from? And what exactly do they mean? I was happy to have a couple of days to spend last week at a conference ...

September 18, 2016, 8:34 pm, 1673898

Victory is claimed by all, defeat assigned to one alone, wrote the Roman historian Tacitus.  That’s certainly the case with the emerging field described as behavioral economics. Thus Richard Thaler, of the Booth School of Business of the University of Chicago, in his autobiography, Misbehaving: The Making of Behavior Economics, ...

September 11, 2016, 8:34 pm, 1671990

Economic Principals is traveling, gathering information, and will return next week.

September 4, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1670114

The phrase “thought leader” is sometimes heard in economists’ conversations, a tag for someone whose work is especially influential, often within and between particular departments. It’s an elusive concept, popularized in a larger sphere by TED talks to the point of brutal parody. Yet I know a thought ...

August 28, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1668249

Towards the end The Euro and the Battle of Ideas (Princeton, 2016), by Markus Brunnermeier, Harold James and Jean-Pierre Landau, the authors observe that most of the debate about the economic crisis of the European Union takes place in the English-language press: the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, ...