Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

February 7, 2016, 8:34 am, 1606114

It was thirty-five years ago that young economists first explicitly tackled the mysteries of technical change, opening up a topic that until then had been carefully bracketed and set aside as a black box by macroeconomists preoccupied with the rhythms of the business cycle. One unassailable gain from that time ...

January 31, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1603909

The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal all agree: the decision to draw drinking water for Flint, Michigan, from its river was an epic failure of government. Where they placed the blame varied widely: Flint’s mayor and the city council; the governor’s office and Michigan’s ...

January 24, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1601537

Readers have wondered when I might back off the hunch I voiced a year ago, and reiterated as recently as December, that Jeb Bush still could eventually win the presidency.  Here goes:

Bush clearly no longer has a chance of winning the nomination. It is Ohio governor John Kasich ...

January 17, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1599618

For 125 years, practically since the beginning of the industrial age, General Electric Co. has been the pole star among US technology companies, second only to DuPont Co.” and, for a time, Bell Telephone.

Founded in Manhattan in 1883 by Tomas Edison himself, buttressed before long by the acquisition of rival ...

January 10, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1597604

SAN FRANCISCO – It was just two years ago that Thomas Piketty directed economists’ attention to rapidly rising degrees of inequality with his weighty tome Capital in the Twenty First Century (Harvard, 2014). We know too much to return to the single-minded preoccupation with distribution exemplified by nineteenth century ...

January 4, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1595788

Economic Principals is traveling, attending the economics meetings in San Francisco, and will return next week.

December 27, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1594175

Should auld acquaintance be forgot?  Economic Principals ordinarily leaves death to the obituary pages. Three unusually creative economists passed from the scene this year who were especially influential.

Nathan Rosenberg, Herbert Scarf and Douglass North were not just remarkable in their own rights; they were leaders of large and ...

December 20, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1592675

So impatient am I with the Trump phenomenon that I spent a good part of the week reading The Triumph of William McKinley: Why the Election of 1896 Still Matters, by Karl Rove (Simon & Schuster, 2015).

I read all the way to the end to discover the answer Rove ...

December 13, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1590324

Consider a handful of apparently disparate facts.

In “Wrapping It Up in a Person,” researchers last week reported in Science magazine on the first strong measurements of the impact of government-funded research on the economy – evidence designed to counter Congressional suspicions of lollygagging in programs funded by, among others, ...

December 6, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1586889

It passed almost unnoticed last week when former Defense Secretary William Perry told the Defense Writers Group that the deterioration of US-Russia relations since 1992 was as much the fault of the Americans as the Russians. He mentioned NATO expansion in particular. “And it began when I was secretary.”

Unnoticed, ...