Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

The website was down for a day and a half, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

January 25, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1409603

First-magnitude stars of the generation of economists who began their work in the 1970s include Paul Krugman, Paul Romer, Lawrence Summers, Jeffrey Sachs, and, a late bloomer, Ben Bernanke.

It was Romer, 59, of New York University, who made a little news earlier this month at the economists’ meetings in ...

January 18, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1406457

Economic Principals is suffering the ill-effects of a serious hack. Visitors to  have not been affected in any way except, perhaps, by noticing the addition of a Spanish language advertisement for soccer shirts to the site’s footer. The archive was not damaged.

Instead EP’s host server was compromised by ...

January 11, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1402514

President Barack Obama claims credit for the recent spate of good economic news.   Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says, “The uptick appears to coincide with the biggest political change of the Obama administration’s long tenure in Washington: the expectation of a new Republican Congress.” The argument illustrates an ...

January 4, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1398502

It is one of the great explications of economics of modern times:  Milton Friedman and The Pencil, a couple of minutes drawn from Free to Choose, the ten-part television series he made with his economist wife, Rose Director Friedman, broadcast and published in 1980.

Friedman comes alive as he enumerates ...

December 28, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1395670

The economists are meeting in Boston next week, and Economic Principals has been getting ready for them, chiefly reading Barry Eichengreen’s Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses – and Misuses – of History (Oxford, 2015).

It’s in the nature of this business that ...

December 21, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1392891

I was halfway through a good new book on US-Russian relations last week when it occurred to me that I might very well vote for Jeb Bush, that is, if I get the chance.

I was startled by the thought. For the last ten years, at least, I’ve thought of myself ...

December 14, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1388912

The news last week that John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief of The Economist, would be moving to New York from London to take charge of the far-flung editorial operations at Bloomberg News reminded me of s politically incorrect joke from my Midwestern childhood – the one about the Norwegian who ...

December 7, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1384767

Boston is slated to regain a battered badge of its identity next month, when arts coverage is expected to return to the daily broadsheet editions of The Boston Globe. To be sure, the return of the section formerly known as “Living/Arts” is apparently a consequence of an expanding business section. ...

December 3, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1382538

American International Group minority shareholder Maurice (Hank) Greenberg, 89, sued the US government in 2011, charging the bargain it drove when it rescued the enormous insurance company he had built from humble beginnings was not only extortionate (the Federal Reserve Board took 80 percent of A.I.G.’s stock) but illicit, to ...

December 3, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1382537

The Nobel award  last week to Jean Tirole, of Toulouse School of Economics, capped a twentieth-century drama whose story has barely begun to be told. I can describe it here only in the broadest way; thanks to the Swedes, the details will now gradually emerge, as did those ...