May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Economic Principals (David Warsh)
It is a busy summer. Economic Principals has many pots upon the stove and relatively little time to read the papers. That seems just as well most days. The news from Gaza, Ukraine, and the southern border of the US is uniformly heartbreaking.
I do, however, find time to look at ...
We wouldn’t be talking this summer about a body of work known as “disruption theory” if its principal author, Clayton Christensen, of Harvard Business School, hadn’t turned up as the featured expert on coping with change at The New York Times and Harvard University, two institutions much concerned with maintaining ...
Economic Principals spent the week reporting and is not writing this week.
It was about a year ago that Paul Krugman asked, “[W]hatever happened to New Growth Theory?” The headline of the item on the blog with which the Nobel laureate supplements his twice-weekly columns for The New York Times telegraphed his answer: The New Growth Fizzle. He wrote:
For a while, ...
It was business page news last week that George Stephanopoulos is to become the “chief anchor” at ABC News, meaning he will lead the network’s coverage whenever there is breaking news. Stephanopoulos isn’t replacing Diane Sawyer as anchor of ABC’s evening news broadcast when she steps down in August. ...
Chances are, unless you are an MBA, you’ve never read anything by business guru Clayton Christensen, the author of a series of self-help business books beginning with The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, in1997. Now, however, an interesting brouhaha has erupted surrounding Harvard ...
One of these days, there’s going to be a book about the financial crisis as good as Peter Baker’s book about the US response to 9/11, Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House (Doubleday, 2013). Baker’s account, which presents George W. Bush as “the Decider,” at ...
“We don’t recall the Red Army took part in D-Day,” grumbled the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal, at the news that Vladimir Putin had been invited to D-Day celebrations in France last week, even as he was shut out of the G7 meetings in Brussels.
Seventy years after the ...
PALO ALTO — Former Secretary of State George Shultz repeatedly stole the show last week at a Hoover Institution conference on central banking practices here, no time more decisively than when he pronounced a benediction on the conference dinner.
The meeting, Frameworks for Central Banking n the Next Century, ...
The Financial Times headline yesterday all but smirked. “Star economist Piketty did his sums wrong in bestseller that tapped inequality zeitgeist.” The story dominated the front page.
The large photo, which captured Piketty’s defensive, appraising gaze in some earlier q&a session, bore the caption, “Pause for thought: a FT investigation ...