Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

Economic Principals (David Warsh)

April 20, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1258035

“Economist Receives Rock Star Treatment”: That was the headline yesterday on Jennifer Schuessler’s story in The New York Times. The facts bear her out. Thomas Piketty, 42, of the Paris School of Economics, seemed to be everywhere last week. Publication of his 685-page Capital in the Twenty-First ...

April 13, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1254933

After spending a couple of days last week at the annual conference on macroeconomics of the National Bureau of Economics (more about that in July), I spent the remainder of my time last week reading In 100 Years: Leading Economists Predict the Future  (MIT Press, 2013), a collection of ...

April 6, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1251551

For all the political controversy surrounding the rollout of the Affordable Care Act, the remarkable thing is how few persons are affected by it. The first annual period of open enrollment ended last week, 7.1 million persons have signed up.

Never mind the political bickering about the composition of the group ...

March 30, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1248189

Back next week!


March 23, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1244843

There was no particular moral to it when my old friend Fred Pillsbury told me the story of what happened the day his detachment of Marines in Okinawa learned that a second atom bomb had been dropped on Nagasaki and that the Pacific war was over. For weeks they had ...

March 16, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1241350

This week marks the beginning of Economic Principals’ thirteenth year as an online outlet instead of a newspaper column. EP’s proprietor was in a stock-taking mood. What’s been happening to the news business since he changed stands?

I turned to newsman Felix Salmon’s five-part online series to find out. Dense with ...

March 9, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1237663

A strong hint of spring in Boston interacted with Economic Principals’ reluctance to write about the very complicated fracas in Ukraine. In the end he gave up and took the day off.

The advice in the headline comes from David Johnson, editor-in-chief of Johnson’s Russia List, the press ...

March 2, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1233930

By all accounts, including his own, Jordan Belfort is a rotten guy – a swindler, a rat on his friends, an all-around cad. So what’s he’s doing in the movies, dressed up nicely and played by Leonardo DiCaprio?  Like everything else associated with Belfort, The Wolf of Wall ...

February 24, 2014, 10:34 am, 1230102

(scheduled for 16 February 2014)

I was tough on Dean Starkman when I wrote about his new book, The Watchdog That Didn’t Bark: The Financial Crisis and the Disappearance of Investigative Journalism (Columbia University Press, 2014).  I don’t think newspapers could have prevented what happened in 2008 by getting up ...

February 23, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1229835

You may or may not have been reading the transcripts released Friday of the 2008 Federal Open Market Committee meetings – 1,865 pages detailing what was said on the record in the course of the eight regularly-scheduled and six emergency meetings of the Federal Reserve System’s top policy-makers during ...