Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

August 24, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1323787

LINDAU, BAVARIA — Organizations extend their influence by involving the young. Science fairs, the Model United Nations, central banking competitions for college students: all are designed to encourage young leaders eager to succeed.

Something of the sort went on last week in this little nineteenth-century summer resort ...

August 17, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1320044

(Please see the correction appended below)

The Econometric Society was founded in 1932 with the idea of combining economic theory, measurement, and statistical technique to create a powerful new means of analysis. Econometrics has grown to be an important field of study, but it remains a topic within economics instead of ...

August 11, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1316532

Progress is a slippery word; but none can doubt that price theory, the preoccupation with markets that historically has at the heart of economics, has seen a great deal of elaboration in the least 75 years.  Jerry Green, of Harvard University, gave a graphic illustration when he travelled to ...

August 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1312413

“We don’t recall the Red Army took part in D-Day,” grumbled the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal, at the news that Vladimir Putin had been invited to D-Day celebrations in France last week, even as he was shut out of the G7 meetings in Brussels.

Seventy years after the ...

August 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1312414

PALO ALTO — Former Secretary of State George Shultz repeatedly stole the show last week at a Hoover Institution conference on central banking practices here, no time more decisively than when he pronounced a benediction on the conference dinner.

The meeting, Frameworks for Central Banking n the Next Century, ...

August 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1312411

Chances are, unless you are an MBA, you’ve never read anything by business guru Clayton Christensen, the author of a series of self-help business books beginning with The Innovator’s Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, in1997. Now, however, an interesting brouhaha has erupted surrounding Harvard ...

August 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1312412

One of these days, there’s going to be a book about the financial crisis as good as Peter Baker’s book about the US response to 9/11,  Days of Fire: Bush and Cheney in the White House (Doubleday, 2013). Baker’s account, which presents George W. Bush as “the Decider,” at ...

August 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1312410

It was business page news last week that George Stephanopoulos is to become the “chief anchor” at ABC News, meaning he will lead the network’s coverage whenever there is breaking news. Stephanopoulos isn’t replacing Diane Sawyer as anchor of ABC’s evening news broadcast when she steps down in August.  ...

August 3, 2014, 2:34 pm, 1310821

When he was eighteen, before entering college, John Micklethwait toured the US for a year with a friend, traveling on Greyhound buses. When they arrived in San Francisco, they spent a memorable evening with expat British businessman Antony Fisher, founder of London’s Institute of Economic Affairs, and ...

July 27, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1306214

It is a busy summer.  Economic Principals has many pots upon the stove and relatively little time to read the papers. That seems just as well most days. The news from Gaza, Ukraine, and the southern border of the US is uniformly heartbreaking.

I do, however, find time to look at ...