Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

May 22, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1638795

Journalist Andrew Sullivan speculated in New York magazine earlier this month that US democracy is ripe for a tyrant, and that the candidacy of Donald Trump is potentially “an extinction-level event.”  Jacob Weisberg, editor-in-chief of the Slate Group, who seems to me (and to the Financial Times) ...

May 15, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1636725

The novelist concerned with the culture of a particular city at a particular time is a familiar figure. To find a home in the market for fiction, often such authors have resorted to crime.  Among the several that I have read with enthusiasm over the years are Dorothy Sayers, on ...

May 8, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1634423

Donald Trump has engineered an unfriendly takeover of the Republican Party.

May 1, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1631910

Dedicated as it is to “commentary on the production and distribution of economic ideas,” Economic Principals paused at the news last week that Leonard Riggio, founder and chairman of Barnes & Noble, Inc., plans to retire this autumn.  He is 75.

I wrote an article about Riggio in 1974, three ...

April 24, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1629514

Victory in the New York state primary seems to have all but clinched the Democratic nomination for Hillary Clinton. I won’t be surprised if this week’s  quintet of northeast primaries puts Donald Trump so close to the top as to diminish the suspense surrounding the Republican convention.

So it is an ...

April 17, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1627411

The Worldly Philosophers, Robert Heilbroner’s sentimental favorite from 1953, is all very well, but if you want a thorough account of the history of economics and AN explanation of why it changed so dramatically in the years after Heilbroner wrote, there is really only one book to read:

April 10, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1625359

A major North American hub of serious research in economics, as consequential in one way as is the National Bureau of Economic Research is in another, is the Center for the History of Political Economy at Duke University. Attending a conference there last week, “Becoming Applied: the transformation of economics since ...

April 3, 2016, 2:34 pm, 1623384

EP is in Durham, North Carolina, attending a conference at Duke University’s Center for the History of Political Economy, “Becoming Applied: The Transformation of Economics since 1970,” organized by Roger Backhouse, of the University of Birmingham, and

March 27, 2016, 4:34 pm, 1621403

It may well be that nobody knows whether or not you’re a dog on the Internet, but if you turn out a dog of a column, it’s plain for all to see.

EP tried something too complicated for the time allotted. Too many other things were going on. So EP is ...

March 20, 2016, 6:34 pm, 1619474

When Middle Tennessee State University defeated heavily-favored Michigan State University in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament last week, I couldn’t help but thinking about how MTSU’s most famous graduate would have savored the upset victory. Nobody symbolized skeptical, critical, courageous resistance to the complacencies of elite ...