Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Economic Principals (David Warsh)


May 24, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1479811

All that summer of 2008, decision-makers in Washington, D.C., were hoping for a soft landing – or so they said at the time. That was, after all, what happened in 1998, after the Russian debt crisis; or in March 2000, when the dot-com bubble collapsed. That speculative frenzy in tech-stock ...


May 17, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1475983

You could say, here at the beginning, that this is a story about three Great Depressions – the one that happened in the twentieth century; another that didn’t, in the twenty-first; and a third, presumptive one that threatens indistinctly sometime in the years ahead.  Most people recognize that Federal Reserve ...


May 10, 2015, 10:34 pm, 1471686

This week Economic Principals appears on its website in a new guise. (The template hasn’t changed over yet; I’ll send a short subscriber report when it does.) The redesign reflects some changes in the underlying WordPress software designed to make EP easier to read on tablets and smart phones. The ...


May 10, 2015, 8:34 pm, 1471677

The news out of Baltimore suggests some interesting lessons about the possibilities for meliorism. That’s what Boston intellectuals called their belief in progress, in the days before the relevant part of metaphysics became known, first as liberalism, and, recently, as progressivism. Ralph Waldo Emerson, William James, John Dewey and Martin ...


May 3, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1466764

The news out of Baltimore suggests some interesting lessons about the possibilities for meliorism. That’s what Boston intellectuals called their belief in progress, in the days before the relevant part of metaphysics became known, first as liberalism, and, recently, as progressivism. Ralph Waldo Emerson, William James, John Dewey and Martin ...


April 26, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1462074

The early stages of the presidential campaign are unfolding as expected.  Jeb Bush is irritating his party’s right wing by periodically praising President Obama. Otherwise he remains as elusive as possible, in view of the gantlet of Red State primaries he must run in order to receive the Republican nomination. ...


April 19, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1457946

Running into economic bloggers Mark Thoma, of the University of Oregon, and Tyler Cowen, of George Mason University, at the annual Conference on Macroeconomics at the National Bureau of Economic Research last week, I was forced to reflect on the way I keep track of developments that, ...


April 12, 2015, 6:34 pm, 1454090

What propelled Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics to the top of the heap? As Bloomberg Businessweek memorably illustrated in 2012, most of the leadership arrayed against the financial crisis was educated to the task at MIT, starting with Ben Bernanke, of the Federal Reserve Board; Mervyn King, of the ...


April 5, 2015, 4:34 pm, 1450847

When John Makin, an economist long associated with the American Enterprise Institute, died last week, reporter Nick Timiraos gave him a gallant send-off  in The Wall Street Journal: “Economist Who Elevated Think-Tank Discourse.”

Makin, 71, had long been a favorite source for serious journalists. A University of Chicago Ph.D., he ...


March 30, 2015, 12:34 am, 1447354

EP was traveling and reporting last week. He tackled a task too tricky for the time allotted to it when he returned home.

Back next week!