Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Economic Principals (David Warsh)

October 26, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1357970

EP is on the road, attending conferences, and will return next week.



October 19, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1353746

The Nobel award  last week to Jean Tirole, of Toulouse School of Economics, capped a twentieth-century drama whose story has barely begun to be told. I can describe it here only in the broadest way; thanks to the Swedes, the details will now gradually emerge, as did those ...

October 12, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1349841

American International Group minority shareholder Maurice (Hank) Greenberg, 89, sued the US government in 2011, charging the bargain it drove when it rescued the enormous insurance company he had built from humble beginnings was not only extortionate (the Federal Reserve Board took 80 percent of A.I.G.’s stock) but illicit, to ...

October 5, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1346371

Not for the first time, EP chose a topic too difficult for the time allotted.

Back next week.



September 29, 2014, 8:34 am, 1342848

The course in introductory computer science at Harvard College this year surpassed elementary economics in popularity. It has 818 enrollments, or nearly 12 percent of the undergraduate population, compared to 711 students in Economics 10. For most of the last thirty years, the economics course has been the catalog’s ...

September 21, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1338822

US capitalism seems to be taking another turn.  The Old Normal (Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, This Time Is Different) was the expectation that, even after a serious banking crisis, growth would resume its long-term annual trend of 2.0 percent in five years or so. The New Normal says, ...

September 14, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1334767

Interested in some civic virtue? Some Got fourteen hours to spare?  A new series by master storyteller Ken Burns about Theodore, Franklin, and Eleanor airs this week on the public broadcasting network – two hours tonight, and each succeeding evening through Saturday. That’s one way to acquire a little ...

September 7, 2014, 4:34 pm, 1330747

Perhaps the single most intriguing mystery of the Ukrainian crisis has to do with how the Foreign Service officer who served as deputy national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney for two years, starting on the eve of the invasion of Iraq, became the Obama administration’s point person on ...

August 31, 2014, 6:34 pm, 1327263

Labor Day in the United States, and EP has taken the day off.  Herewith a re-issue of EP’s edition of July 18, 2004.

Frank Levy, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,  and Richard Murnane, of Harvard University,  had just published The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market ...

August 24, 2014, 8:34 pm, 1323787

LINDAU, BAVARIA — Organizations extend their influence by involving the young. Science fairs, the Model United Nations, central banking competitions for college students: all are designed to encourage young leaders eager to succeed.

Something of the sort went on last week in this little nineteenth-century summer resort ...