Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”


August 20, 2014, 6:36 am, 1321518
Looking for recessions is an obsession for some folks. Every wobbly update, every release of bad news is a new excuse to see trouble around the next bend. But crying fire in the theater of business-cycle analysis has been a … Continue reading →


August 19, 2014, 10:36 am, 1320991
Making informed choices about active managers has never been anyone’s idea of a picnic, but ongoing developments in R packages eases the burden. Consider the essential work of factor analysis, which is a statistical technique for identifying the sources of … Continue reading →


August 19, 2014, 10:36 am, 1320990
New residential housing construction bounced back in July. Although the consensus forecast was looking for a handsome rebound, the actual results were substantially better than expected. Housing starts revived to a 1.093 million annualized rate last month, which is well … Continue reading →


August 18, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1320546
Phil DeMuth at Conservative Wealth Management (and the author of several finance titles, including The Affluent Investor) just posted a Q&A at Forbes.com with yours truly on a topic that receives slightly more than average attention at The Capital Spectator: … Continue reading →


August 18, 2014, 10:35 am, 1320314
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed under 2.35% last week, the lowest in more than a year. Oil prices are soft as well these days, with the spot price for West Texas Intermediate slipping into the mid-$90 range for the … Continue reading →


August 18, 2014, 8:35 am, 1320234
Housing starts are expected to total 937,000 in tomorrow’s update for July, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents a moderate increase vs. the previously reported 893,000 for June. The Capital … Continue reading →


August 12, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1317002
The Capital Spectator is sneaking out this afternoon for one final summer holiday for the remainder of the week. The usual fun resumes on Monday, August 18. Meantime… cheers!


August 12, 2014, 8:35 am, 1316845
The last decade or so has witnessed a productive run of research on the ever-topical issue of detecting market bubbles in real time. Quite a lot of attention has recently been focused on a series of research studies by an … Continue reading →


August 11, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1316388
US retail sales are expected to rise 0.2% in the July report (scheduled for release on Aug. 13) vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The prediction matches the previously reported 0.2% gain for June. … Continue reading →


August 11, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1316387
US industrial production in June is projected to increase 0.3% vs. the previous month in Friday’s release (Aug. 15) from the Federal Reserve, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The expected gain represents a slightly faster pace of … Continue reading →