Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

July 29, 2014, 8:36 am, 1307138
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 271,000 (seasonally adjusted) in July over the previous month in tomorrow’s release of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected gain is … Continue reading →

July 28, 2014, 8:35 am, 1306401
The US economy is expected to post a substantial rebound in the government’s initial estimate of second-quarter GDP that’s scheduled for release on Wednesday, according to the Capital Spectator’s median econometric nowcast. Following the surprisingly sharp 2.9% decline for Q1 … Continue reading →

July 26, 2014, 8:36 am, 1305919
● Asset Rotation: The Demise of Modern Portfolio Theory and the Birth of an Investment Renaissance By Matthew P. Erickson Summary via publisher, Wiley In Asset Rotation, portfolio management pioneer Matthew P. Erickson demonstrates a time-tested approach to asset management … Continue reading →

July 25, 2014, 10:36 am, 1305451
Housing remains a weak spot for the US economy, as suggested in yesterday’s news of a surprisingly large decline in new home sales for June. The report follows last week’s update on new residential construction, which also slumped more than … Continue reading →

July 24, 2014, 10:36 am, 1304677
Is it a game-changer? A tipping point? A moment when the economy finally turned a corner for the better in a meaningful way? Possibly. Meantime, one can argue that this is why the stock market has been rallying this year: … Continue reading →

July 24, 2014, 8:36 am, 1304599
Momentum Has Not Been ‘Overgrazed’: A Visual Overview in 10 Slides Claude B. Erb | May 10, 2014 The return to “momentum” does not seem to be the victim of “overgrazing”. Conceptually, overgrazing occurs when too much capital chases too … Continue reading →

July 23, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1304142
US economic growth slowed in June, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The benchmark’s three-month average (CFNAI-MA3) fell to +0.13 last month from an upwardly revised +0.28 for May. Today’s update was in line with The Capital Spectator’s … Continue reading →

July 23, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1304141
Some analysts are again projecting that the age of higher interest rates has finally arrived. The Fed is tapering and the US economy is expanding moderately, despite a first-quarter setback. David Kotok last week wrote that the central bank’s tapering … Continue reading →

July 23, 2014, 4:35 pm, 1304140
The Federal Reserve’s tapering is underway. The central bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program that generated record levels of monetary liquidity in recent years is on track to fade into history by the end of the year. The approaching demise of … Continue reading →

July 20, 2014, 8:36 am, 1303668
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline to +0.10 in tomorrow’s update for June, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The projection is moderately below the previously released +0.18 reading … Continue reading →