Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

June 28, 2016, 8:35 am, 1649091

Next month’s “advance” GDP report for the US in the second quarter is widely projected to show that economic activity will rebound from Q1’s sluggish 0.8% gain (which is expected to be revised up to 1.0% in today’s revision, according to’s consensus forecast). But a higher level of macro ...

June 28, 2016, 6:35 am, 1649053

Brexit uncertainty continued to weigh on stock markets yesterday. Stratfor, a geopolitical consultancy, advises that the UK vote to leave the European Union may signal the start of a post-globalization world. Reva Goujon, a Stratfor analyst, writes that “global trade growth has been in structural decline since ...

June 27, 2016, 8:35 am, 1648736

Equity markets around the world took a hit at the end of last week in the wake of Friday’s news that Britain voted to leave the European Union. Stocks almost everywhere posted sharp losses once the dust cleared for the trading week through June 24. US junk bonds, however, managed ...

June 27, 2016, 6:35 am, 1648707

In the wake of Friday’s stunning Brexit news, attention will increasingly focus on the messy details of implementing the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. As Reuters points out, there are several scenarios that could unfold. Meanwhile, there’s more chaos as a political crisis roils ...

June 25, 2016, 8:35 am, 1648399

Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe
By James K. Galbraith
Summary via publisher (Yale University Press)
The economic crisis in Greece is a potential international disaster and ...

June 24, 2016, 6:35 am, 1648107

The UK voted to leave the European Union, dealing a heavy blow to Europe’s 50-year effort to create a unified economic region and unleashing a hefty dose of economic uncertainty for Britain, Europe and perhaps the world economy in the months ahead. In reaction to the startling vote, ...

June 24, 2016, 6:35 am, 1648106

The shocking news that the UK voted to leave the European Union has triggered a new phase of risk-off sentiment around the world. It’s anyone’s guess how this all plays out, but the initial reaction is deeply bearish. Yes, it could all be overblown, but the crowd is inclined, once ...

June 23, 2016, 10:35 am, 1647841

Economic activity in the US continued to decelerate in May, according to this morning’s update of the three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3). Last month’s reading slid to -0.36, the lowest in nearly four years. Despite the recent downtrend, CFNAI-MA3 remains above the tipping ...

June 23, 2016, 8:35 am, 1647794

Former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal is a fan of the ISM Manufacturing Index. In fact, the one-time co-manager of the GLG Global Macro Fund in London puts this widely followed benchmark at the center of his analytical universe for all things related to global macro investing.  “The ISM ...

June 23, 2016, 6:35 am, 1647771

Today’s the day for the Brexit vote. The UK goes to the polls on Thursday to decide if Britain will remain in the European Union. Most polls shows that a “virtual dead heat”, The Wall Street Journal advises.

Sales of existing US homes rose to a nine-year high ...