Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

November 26, 2014, 10:34 am, 1378333
Personal income and spending posted modest gains in today’s October update from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), albeit at monthly rates (+0.2% on both counts) that fell short of the crowd’s expectations. The usual suspects will fuss over the monthly comparisons and try to spin context out of ...

November 26, 2014, 8:34 am, 1378259
Clarity is a virtue when it comes to the business cycle. It’s also unusual. The US is an exception, or at least it has been, according to Scott Sumner, an economist at Bentley University and a prolific blogger on macro matters. “The US has a really weird economy,” he writes. ...

November 26, 2014, 6:34 am, 1378192
● US GDP grows at better-than-expected 3.9% pace in third quarter | LA Times ● UK GDP growth confirmed at 0.7% for Q3 | Marketwatch ● Bank of England will raise rates despite euro gloom, says Mark Carney | Telegraph ● Saudis signal no push for oil cut as market ...

November 25, 2014, 10:34 am, 1377577
US personal consumption spending for October is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s update (Nov. 26), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a moderate rebound in growth relative to September’s 0.2% decline. Compared with a trio of ...

November 25, 2014, 6:34 am, 1377431
● Violence erupts after Ferguson grand jury announcement | USA Today ● Private consumption spike helps Germany avoid recession in Q3 | Reuters ● Global business confidence slumps to 5-year survey low | Markit ● US Services Sectors Growth Slows To 7-Month Low | Markit ● Italy retail sales post ...

November 25, 2014, 6:34 am, 1377430
US economic growth is on track to decelerate in this year’s fourth quarter, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. Today’s initial GDP estimate for the final three months of 2014 anticipates an increase of 2.1% (real seasonally adjusted rate) — a substantially lower rate ...

November 24, 2014, 10:34 am, 1376930
The pace of US growth slowed more than expected in October, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The three-month moving average for this benchmark of 85 indicators slipped to a negative 0.01 reading last month from +0.12 in September. Led by weakness in “production-related ...

November 24, 2014, 8:34 am, 1376868
There’s a pernicious rumor making the rounds that economic and market forecasts are accurate. There’s also a misguided notion embraced in some corners that all predictions are worthless at all times under all conditions. Both of these extreme views are unproductive, bordering on dangerous. Yes, peering into the future is ...

November 24, 2014, 6:34 am, 1376773
● German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Gains in November | Bloomberg ● Euro near two-year low as investors bet on more ECB easing | Reuters ● All eyes on oil: What will OPEC do this week? | CNNMoney ● China Cuts Interest Rates For First Time Since 2012 | RTT ● ...

November 22, 2014, 8:34 am, 1376199
● Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia? By Karen Dawisha Review via The Wall Street Journal Systemic embezzlement, skimming, fraud and personal enrichment through power—these have long been assumed about Vladimir Putin ‘s inner circle, but they have not been comprehensively laid out until now. Karen Dawisha’s book made headlines in ...