Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 1/21/15

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

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March 2, 2015, 8:35 am, 1431602
February witnessed a bit of mean reversion among the major asset classes as the winners and losers at the extremes in recent history traded places last month. The bearish trend in commodities (Bloomberg Commodity Index) eased as the asset class generated its first monthly gain since June 2014. Meanwhile, the ...

March 2, 2015, 6:35 am, 1431529
● Dollar near 11-year high after Chinese rate cut, eyes on ECB | Reuters ● China’s factory output rise for 1st time in 4 months | Markit ● Eurozone Consumer Prices Fall Less Than Expected In February | RTT ● Eurozone jobless rate ticks down to 11.2% in January | ...

March 1, 2015, 8:35 pm, 1431360
Economists are projecting no change to a slight decline for tomorrow’s January update on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) vs. December. The consensus forecast via, for instance, is zero;’s survey of analysts expects a marginal loss. It all adds up to a good guess, based on last month’s release ...

March 1, 2015, 10:34 am, 1431277
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline to 52.8 in tomorrow’s update (Mar. 2) for February vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is still above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook remains in moderate ...

February 28, 2015, 8:35 am, 1430934
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February 27, 2015, 8:35 am, 1430299
Asset allocation is second to none in the hierarchy of critical investment decisions, but benchmarking and general analysis in this space can be a slippery affair. That’s no surprise, since portfolio design and management deserves to be customized for each investor. But while asset allocation is largely an insular project, ...

February 27, 2015, 6:35 am, 1430234
● U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rebound 2.8% In January | RTT ● Jobless Claims in U.S. Jump by Most Since December 2013 | Bloomberg ● Consumer Prices Drop, Primarily Because of Falling Gas Prices | NY Times ● Dollar on track for eighth month of gains on U.S. data, Fed ...

February 26, 2015, 8:35 am, 1429436
Deflation risk seems to be making a comeback… again. Germany yesterday sold five-year government notes at a negative yield for the first time in its history. Meanwhile, China’s central bank this week warned that the threat of deflation is rising for the world’s second-largest economy. Europe and Japan, of course, ...

February 26, 2015, 6:35 am, 1429380
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February 25, 2015, 8:35 am, 1428675
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s Senate testimony yesterday suggested that the central bank is still on track to hike rates later this year, courtesy of the stronger economic trend. But the big day may arrive later than previously assumed. It’s all about the data. “Provided that labor market conditions continue to ...