Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

September 20, 2014, 6:35 am, 1338374
● American Power after the Financial Crisis By Jonathan Kirshner Summary via publisher (Cornell University Press) The global financial crisis of 2007–2008 was both an economic catastrophe and a watershed event in world politics. In American Power after the Financial … Continue reading →

September 19, 2014, 10:36 am, 1337926
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rise slightly to +0.29 in Monday’s update for August, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The projection is marginally above July’s +0.25 reading, … Continue reading →

September 19, 2014, 6:36 am, 1337778
The latest economic releases look wobbly in some corners–yesterday’s report on housing starts, for example. But the monthly comparisons for several indicators, although weak, appear to be noise at this time in terms of evaluating the business cycle. Indeed, reviewing … Continue reading →

September 18, 2014, 6:35 am, 1337073
I’m off to Manhattan, where I’m a panelist at today’s 360 Exchange conference hosted by Bloomberg. My session focuses on volatility in macro and markets. My co-panelist is Dan Farley, chief investment officer for the investment solutions group at State … Continue reading →

September 17, 2014, 10:36 am, 1336464
Housing starts are expected to decrease to 1.050 million in tomorrow’s update for August, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents a marginal decline from 1.093 million starts in July. The … Continue reading →

September 17, 2014, 8:35 am, 1336387
Volatility is starting to creep back into the markets. It’s not obvious from the 30,000-foot view, but a few corners of the global markets are becoming jittery. Exhibit A: US real estate investment trusts (REITs), which tumbled sharply in recent … Continue reading →

September 16, 2014, 8:36 am, 1335713
When the dust clears from tomorrow’s Fed announcement, the crowd’s expecting that the slow but persistent pace of tapering will endure. While we’re waiting for Wednesday’s monetary statement, revised set of economic projections, and press conference, consider that the real … Continue reading →

September 15, 2014, 8:36 am, 1335008
The trend in recent years of securitizing more of the world’s market betas offers investors, in theory, better odds for enhancing risk-adjusted returns. Providing access to a broader set of low and even negatively correlated assets moves us closer to … Continue reading →

September 14, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1334674
US industrial production in August is projected to increase 0.3% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s report from the Federal Reserve, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected gain represents a marginal deceleration in growth relative … Continue reading →

September 13, 2014, 6:36 am, 1334310
● The Shifts and the Shocks: What We’ve Learned–and Have Still to Learn–from the Financial Crisis By Martin Wolf Review ( For Freud, everything was about sex. For Marx, it was the struggle between capital and labor. These thinkers took … Continue reading →