Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

October 31, 2014, 6:34 am, 1361415
● German retail sales see biggest fall in more than seven years | Reuters German retail sales posted their biggest monthly decline in more than seven years in September, data showed on Friday, a sign that consumers cannot be relied on to prop up Europe’s largest economy. ● BOJ shocks ...

October 30, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1360776
Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for September is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The prediction reflects a deceleration in growth relative to August’s 0.5% gain. Compared with a trio of consensus estimates based on recent surveys ...

October 30, 2014, 10:34 am, 1360696
The US economy grew faster than expected in this year’s third quarter, according to this morning’s “advance” GDP estimate for the July-through-September period. Economic activity expanded 3.5% in Q3, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports — comfortably above the consensus forecast’s 3.0% estimate, according to’s survey. Meanwhile, today’s weekly ...

October 30, 2014, 8:34 am, 1360621
It’s nearly Halloween, but the frightening rise in US stock market volatility earlier this month is looking less creepy at the moment. In particular, the Volatility Index (VIX) for the S&P 500 has tumbled substantially over the past week, settling at a level yesterday (Oct. 29) that prevailed before the ...

October 30, 2014, 6:34 am, 1360544
● NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe | Wall Street Journal Russian military aircraft conducted aerial maneuvers around Europe this week on a scale seldom seen since the end of the Cold War, prompting NATO jets to scramble in another sign of how raw East-West relations have grown. ...

October 29, 2014, 8:34 am, 1359739
● US factory orders unexpectedly drop for 2nd straight month | LA Times Orders for durable goods, a key indicator of manufacturing activity, unexpectedly dropped in September for the second straight month in a potentially troubling sign for the U.S. economy. ● Wall Street eyes Fed’s next move as QE ...

October 29, 2014, 8:34 am, 1359738
If you’re pondering the allure of real estate investment trusts (REITs) these days, consider two attributes of late: strong performance vs. the US stock market and relatively high yields over Treasuries. As winning combinations go among asset classes at the moment, US REITs cast an attractive profile. A couple of ...

October 28, 2014, 8:35 am, 1358900
The Federal Reserve is expected to formally announce the end of QE3 in tomorrow’s FOMC monetary statement. But as quantitative easing (buying assets with newly printed money) fades into the sunset, the trend in inflation expectations is moving in the wrong direction: down. One of the goals of QE is ...

October 28, 2014, 6:34 am, 1358821
● Seeking Unity, U.S. Revises Ebola Monitoring Rules | NY Times The federal government on Monday tried to take charge of an increasingly acrimonious national debate over how to treat people in contact with Ebola patients by announcing guidelines that stopped short of tough measures in New York and New ...

October 27, 2014, 8:34 am, 1358130
The recent surge in US stock market volatility has rattled nerves and inspired some analysts to announce that a new bear market has arrived. The warning has resonated a bit deeper in some circles with the sight of the S&P 500 falling below its 200-day moving average earlier this month. ...