Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

December 3, 2016, 6:34 am, 1699463

The Populist Explosion: How the Great Recession Transformed American and European Politics
By John Judis
Review via The Economist
The Western intelligentsia, snug in its echo-chamber, has done a dismal job of understanding what ...

December 2, 2016, 10:34 am, 1699242

US companies hired 156,000 workers last month, according to this morning’s update from the Labor Dept. Last month’s seasonally adjusted gain reflects a modest improvement over October’s sluggish 135,000 increase. But in contrast with firmer annual results in ADP’s estimate of last month’s employment trend in the private ...

December 2, 2016, 6:34 am, 1699171

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to rise in November, reaching the highest level in more than two years. GMI, an unmanaged market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes, is currently projected to earn an annualized 4.3% over the long term—modestly above

December 1, 2016, 6:34 am, 1698832

Global markets continued to slide in November, with three main exceptions: US equities, US high-yield bonds, and broadly defined commodities. Otherwise, varying shades of red dominated last month’s return column for the major asset classes.

The US stock market bucked the downside trend, posting a strong 4.5% total ...

November 30, 2016, 10:34 am, 1698548

The recession-is-always-imminent crew took it on the chin again today via upbeat data on private payrolls in November. US companies added 216,000 workers (seasonally adjusted) this month, according to the ADP Employment Report. The gain—the largest in five months—gives the Federal Reserve more ammunition for arguing that the ...

November 29, 2016, 8:34 am, 1698141

The rebound in US economic growth in the third quarter is looking vulnerable in Q4, according to recent estimates from several sources. If the projections are accurate, the 2.9% pace in Q3 (the highest rate in two years) is headed towards 2.0%. That’s still an improvement over the sluggish pace ...

November 28, 2016, 6:34 am, 1697746

Commodities popped last week, posting the strongest weekly gain among the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs. Supported by expectations of higher inflation, broadly defined commodities led the way higher by a wide margin in the holiday shortened trading week through Friday, Nov. 25.

November 24, 2016, 8:34 am, 1697145

The President has proclaimed today a National Day of Thanksgiving and The Capital Spectator is eager to yield to his authority on this matter. In fact, your editor herewith extends and ratifies this holiday edict through the weekend. The usual routine returns on Monday, Nov. 28. Happy Thanksgiving!

November 23, 2016, 6:34 am, 1696800

In another sign that the Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates, the real (inflation-adjusted) M0 money supply’s decline picked up speed in October. The 13.4% year-over-year decrease is the steepest on record (dating to 1948) and marks a sharp drop from September’s 8.8% slide.

M0, ...

November 22, 2016, 8:34 am, 1696443

Interest rates have increased moderately since Donald Trump’s election victory two weeks ago and analysts say that yields may trend higher in the months ahead. What does that imply for the stock market and the economy? As a preliminary answer, let’s model the possibilities by analyzing the historical record since ...