Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”


October 2, 2014, 6:36 am, 1344844
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 208,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The prediction reflects a sharply higher gain vs. the previously … Continue reading →


October 1, 2014, 10:35 am, 1344367
Private-sector employment continued to rise at a moderate pace in September, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report. Last month’s 213,000 increase in jobs (seasonally adjusted) was slightly higher than the consensus forecast, but generally in line with the pace … Continue reading →


October 1, 2014, 8:35 am, 1344291
September was a complete rout. All the major asset classes suffered losses last month—the first calendar month of across-the-board red ink since June 2013. At the top of the casualty list: emerging-market stocks (MSCI EM), which tumbled 7.4% in September. … Continue reading →


September 30, 2014, 12:36 pm, 1343787
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to decline slightly to 58.1 in tomorrow’s update for September vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The estimate is still well above the neutral 50.0 mark and … Continue reading →


September 30, 2014, 10:36 am, 1343700
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to rise 204,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The expected monthly gain matches August’s increase. Compared with … Continue reading →


September 30, 2014, 8:36 am, 1343622
The Treasury market’s inflation forecast via 10-year Notes continues to fall and the US stock market has turned wobbly too. That’s a troubling combination… if it continues. The antidote to this mini re-run of heightened disinflation risk is economic growth. … Continue reading →


September 29, 2014, 8:35 am, 1342851
PIMCO’s star manager, Bill Gross, is moving on to Janus. By some accounts, the Janus brand will be rejuvenated with the arrival of the “bond king,” a moniker earned over a long run of outsized returns in plying the waters … Continue reading →


September 28, 2014, 12:36 pm, 1342562
Tomorrow’s update on US personal consumption spending for August is projected to rise 0.4% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast. The prediction reflects a strong rebound after July’s 0.1% decrease. Compared with a … Continue reading →


September 27, 2014, 8:36 am, 1342245
● Open Secret: The Global Banking Conspiracy That Swindled Investors Out of Billions By Erin Arvedlund Summary via publisher (Portfolio) In the midst of the financial crisis of 2008, rumors swirled that a sinister scandal was brewing deep in the … Continue reading →


September 26, 2014, 10:36 am, 1341764
Looking backward delivered another inspirational session for the bulls in the land of macro today. The US economy grew faster than previously estimated in the second quarter, according to this morning’s revision from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP expanded … Continue reading →