Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

July 20, 2014, 8:36 am, 1303668
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline to +0.10 in tomorrow’s update for June, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The projection is moderately below the previously released +0.18 reading … Continue reading →

July 19, 2014, 8:35 am, 1303458
● The Next Economic Disaster: Why It’s Coming and How to Avoid It By Richard Vague Summary via publisher, University of Pennsylvania Press Current debates about economic crises typically focus on the role that public debt and debt-fueled public spending … Continue reading →

July 18, 2014, 6:36 am, 1302939
There’s still plenty to worry about (or rant about) when it comes to macro analysis, but conspicuous signs of trouble are still the exception for the broad trend. The June update of a diversified set of 14 economic and financial … Continue reading →

July 17, 2014, 10:35 am, 1302386
Housing starts were surprisingly weak in June, the Census Bureau reports. The consensus forecast was looking for a modest gain to a 1.026 million annualized rate. Instead, the actual number dipped to 893,000—the lowest since last September. Newly issued permits … Continue reading →

July 16, 2014, 10:35 am, 1301763
Industrial production increased 0.2% in June, the Federal Reserve reports. The rise is moderately below expectations, although the good news is that industrial output is still expanding at a decent pace on a year-over-year basis, which suggests that the outlook … Continue reading →

July 16, 2014, 8:36 am, 1301694
Housing starts are expected to total 1.017 million in tomorrow’s update for June, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The projection represents a modest increase vs. the previously reported 1.001 million for May. … Continue reading →

July 15, 2014, 10:35 am, 1301157
Retail sales increased less than expected in June, rising a sluggish 0.2% vs. the 0.6% advance that the market was looking for. But there are a couple of reasons for thinking that this is mostly short-term noise as opposed to … Continue reading →

July 15, 2014, 8:35 am, 1301086
US industrial production in June is projected to increase 0.3% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s release from the Federal Reserve, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The expected gain represents a deceleration in growth relative to May’s … Continue reading →

July 15, 2014, 6:35 am, 1301029
Risk management doesn’t attract a crowd these days. Diversification and rebalancing? Meshach, Shadrach, and Abednego, say the bulls. It’s all about (positive) momentum. Discussions of tail risk and downside deviation are persona non grata at this party. So it goes … Continue reading →

July 14, 2014, 6:35 am, 1300504
US retail sales are expected to rise 0.6% in tomorrow’s June report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. The prediction represents a doubling in the rate of growth vs. the previously reported 0.3% gain … Continue reading →