Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

December 20, 2014, 8:34 am, 1392564
Last week I recapped some of the more interesting titles that appeared in The Capital Spectator’s Book Bits column that runs on Saturday mornings. Here’s Part II of the year-end review of economic and finance books from 2014 that deserve a second look… ● Risk Savvy: How to Make Good ...

December 19, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1392174
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rebound to a +0.12 reading in the November update that’s scheduled for Monday (Dec. 22), based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is moderately above the -0.01 reading for ...

December 19, 2014, 8:34 am, 1392035
It’s all about real estate investment trusts (REITs) these days when it comes to bullish performance among the major asset classes via our standard list of ETF proxies for the key slices of global markets. US REITs, to be precise, are enjoying a melt-up moment. But don’t confuse the stellar ...

December 19, 2014, 6:35 am, 1391986
● Jobless claims still signal strong U.S. hiring | MarketWatch ● US service sector output growth hits 10-month low in Dec | Markit ● U.S. Leading Economic Index Rises 0.6% In November | RTT ● Philly Fed survey shows factory activity slowed in December | Reuters ● German consumer morale ...

December 18, 2014, 8:34 am, 1391387
Yesterday’s update of the Federal Reserve’s quarterly economic forecast is a minor triumph for optimism. The central bank still expects that US GDP in 2015 will increase in the range of 2.6% to 3.0%, unchanged from its previous estimate in September. That’s a mild expansion, but it’s a step up ...

December 18, 2014, 6:34 am, 1391314
● US, Cuba restore ties after 50 years | Reuters ● Experts on N. Korea see regime’s fingerprints on Sony attack | LA Times ● Putin’s Economic System Frays Further | Bloomberg ● North Sea oil industry ‘close to collapse’ | BBC ● Global life expectancy has ‘increased by 6 ...

December 17, 2014, 8:34 am, 1390656
The global economy is under pressure these days, suffering from a troubling mix of heightened geopolitical risk and wobbly macro reports. Despite the challenging environment, the US economy still looks resilient, based on the current numbers through November. Tracking a diversified set of indicators shows that macro momentum was solidly ...

December 17, 2014, 6:34 am, 1390586
● Bond Investors Are Skittish Over Emerging Markets | NY Times ● Three most important things to watch during Fed meeting | MarketWatch ● Memories of 1998 May Persuade Yellen’s Fed to Keep Rates Low | BusinessWeek ● Weakened Kremlin, plunging ruble create unpredictable Putin | Globe & Mail ● ...

December 16, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1390047
Today’s US economic releases – housing starts and business survey data for the manufacturing sector – suggest that the macro headwinds are increasing. It’s premature to dismiss the numbers du jour, but the previously released reports in recent weeks – payrolls, retail sales, and industrial production – offer a sharply ...

December 16, 2014, 8:34 am, 1389907
Mr. Market can be an emotional fellow at times, confusing and confounding the casual observer who tries to make sense out of market action that can appear nonsensical at times… right now, for instance. Indeed, the US stock market has been tumbling since its Dec. 5 peak – a slide ...