Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

May 28, 2016, 8:35 am, 1640598

What They Do With Your Money:
How the Financial System Fails Us and How to Fix It

By Stephen Davis, et al.
Summary via publisher (Yale University Press)
Each year we pay billions in fees ...

May 27, 2016, 8:35 am, 1640352

William Bernstein penned an intriguing e-book a few years ago that considered the possibility that correlations are destined to rise among asset classes due to indexing’s growing popularity. “The average investor can build and manage multi-asset class portfolios to a degree that was once the exclusive province of institutions,” the ...

May 27, 2016, 6:35 am, 1640334

● US durable-goods orders jump in Apr due to planes | MarketWatch
● Orders for US Capital Goods Unexpectedly Fall for 3rd Month | Bloomberg
● Pending home sales +5.1% in April, reach highest level in a decade | CNBC
● US jobless claims fall more than ...

May 26, 2016, 8:35 am, 1640031

US economic growth in the second quarter is widely expected to rebound after Q1’s stall-speed rise of just 0.5% (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The question is how much a rebound will we see when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) publishes this year’s “advance” Q2 GDP report on July ...

May 26, 2016, 6:35 am, 1639995

● Markit: US Service Sector Weakened in May; Outlier or Warning? | Barron’s
● US house prices +1.9% in Q1–19th straight quarterly rise | Builder
● US mortgage applications post another tepid gain last week | HW
● Why the global trade slowdown may matter |

May 25, 2016, 10:35 am, 1639695

Survey data published by Markit Economics this week anticipates a weak US economic profile for May. Today’s flash estimate of the Services PMI for this month dipped modestly to 51.2, or just slightly above the neutral 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. The news follows Monday’s preliminary ...

May 25, 2016, 8:35 am, 1639648

The US stock market rebounded sharply yesterday, dispensing the biggest daily gain in two months. But the latest surge doesn’t change much for the trailing 10-year return, which remains well below its median for the rolling decade-long changes posted over the last 50 years. That may or may not be ...

May 25, 2016, 6:35 am, 1639611

● US New-Home Sales Jump to Highest Level in Over 8 Years | NY Times
● Richmond Fed: Manufacturing activity slowed in May | Richmond Fed
● Americans’ confidence in the US economy remains steady in mid-May | Gallup
● ECB’s Villeroy: Brexit Risks High for UK ...

May 24, 2016, 8:35 am, 1639281

The Federal Reserve continued to press ahead yesterday with its public relations effort of talking up the possibility of a rate hike, perhaps as early as next month. The latest addition to the hawkish-chattering club is the Philly Fed’s Pat Harker, who advised on Monday that “I can easily ...

May 24, 2016, 6:35 am, 1639243

● Markit PMI shows US manufacturing stagnant in May | MarketWatch
● Philly Fed’s Harker: June Hike Appropriate With Stronger Economy | MNI
● Progress toward full employment has stalled | FedWatch
● When Elections Aren’t About the Economy | NY Times
● Billions in US ...