September Payroll Employment
We are still 1% off the previous peak in jobs.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)
"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”
Today's economic reports look strikingly bipolar. First the good news: retail sales rose a healthy 0.7% in November vs. the previous month—a bit faster than The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast but in line with the consensus outlook. This morning’s update on initial jobless claims is another ...
It seems that crowd is increasingly inclined to expect that the Federal Reserve will begin to slow its bond-buying program next week, at the conclusion of its FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday, Dec. 18. Yesterday’s sharp drop in the US stock market is one sign that the Mr. Market is ...
The US economic trend, after strengthening in late-October through mid-November, has pulled back from its recent highs in the last several weeks, based on a markets-based profile of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at 13.0% on Tuesday, Dec. 10, a level that still suggests that business cycle ...
US retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% in Thursday’s update (Dec. 12) for November vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. The prediction is slightly higher than the previously reported 0.4% increase for October. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator's average projection for November is ...
It’s the gift that keeps on giving: US stocks. Equities in these United States are up 30% year-to-date, based on our ETF proxy (Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI)). It’s debatable if this asset class is precariously defying gravity or accurately reflecting stronger fundamentals. In any case, it’s a sight to ...
This year's fourth-quarter US GDP is expected to increase 2.0% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate), according to The Capital Spectator’s revised average econometric nowcast. The projected growth rate is slightly higher than the previous 1.9% estimate, which was published on November 18. The government's initial estimate of this year's ...
● Going Viral
By Karine Nahon and Jeff Hemsley
Summary via publisher, Polity
We live in a world where a tweet can be instantly retweeted and read by millions around the world in minutes, where a video forwarded ...
In the coming days (weeks?) I'll be attempting to transition The Capital Spectator to Wordpress from the existing MovableType platform. As a result, the site may go dark at times as I wrestle with the tech gods and work through the inevitable bugs that will pop up.
The labor market expanded again last month: private payrolls increased 196,000 in November, moderately more than expected, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric projection. Even so, last month’s gain fell short of October’s revised 214,000 rise, although the pace of growth in November still suggests that the ...
This morning’s economic updates for the US paint an encouraging profile, but it may be a bit misleading. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second-quarter GDP up by a hefty degree, estimating that the nation’s output of goods and services increased 3.6% for the three months through September (seasonally ...