Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

July 25, 2015, 8:34 am, 1515533
The usual routine is on hiatus while The Capital Spectator takes a holiday by way of a slow boat to Bermuda. Your seafaring editor returns as a landlubber on Monday, August 3, when the focus on macro and finance resumes anew. Meantime, fair winds to all…

July 25, 2015, 6:34 am, 1515512
● The Global Economy in Turbulent Times By See-Yan Lin Summary via publisher (Wiley) In Global Economy in Turbulent Times, Harvard economist Dr. See-Yan Lin offers his timely and incisive views on today’s key economic issues. Adapted from his hugely popular column in the Malaysia Star newspaper, these articles offer ...

July 24, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1515150
Manufacturing activity picked up a bit this month, according to July’s flash estimate of the sector’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI). The sentiment benchmark inched up to 53.8 after June’s 53.6 reading—a 20-month low. Any value above the neutral 50 mark represents growth. Today’s update still shows this cyclically sensitive sector ...

July 24, 2015, 10:34 am, 1515075
Next week’s “advance” GDP report (due on July 30) for the second quarter is projected to show that the US economy increased 1.9% (seasonally adjusted annual rate),  based on The Capital Spectator’s average estimate for several econometric-based forecasts. Today’s updated average forecast, which is slightly above last month’s Q2 estimate, marks ...

July 24, 2015, 8:34 am, 1515008
There’s precious little hard data at this point for profiling the US economy in July, but the preliminary numbers so far suggest that growth will prevail and the manufacturing sector’s recent weakness will give way to a modestly stronger trend. We’ll know more when we see today’s flash July data ...

July 24, 2015, 6:34 am, 1514941
● US jobless claims fall to lowest level since 1973… ● US leading index rises more than forecast in June… ● Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index rebounds in June… ● But Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index slides to 5-week low… ● Flash Eurozone Composite PMI dips in July, but still near ...

July 23, 2015, 10:34 am, 1514258
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s three-month average (CFNAI-MA3) increased to -0.01 in June, reflecting US economic growth that’s effectively at the historical trend rate (i.e., a reading of zero). The rise marks the third consecutive month of modest improvement in economic output, according to this metric in today’s report ...

July 23, 2015, 8:35 am, 1514185
The housing market continue to show signs of recovery after a soft first quarter. The latest hint: yesterday’s better-than-expected rise in existing home sales. Purchases advanced at the strongest pace in over eight years, reaching a new post-recession seasonally adjusted high of 5.49 million units in June. The update follows ...

July 23, 2015, 6:34 am, 1514123
● US existing home sales in June rise at fastest pace in over 8 years… ● US house prices rise 5.7% for 12 months through May… ● Demand for US mortgage applications inch up for week through July 17… ● 30-year Treasury yield falls, near 2-week low… ● UK retail ...

July 22, 2015, 10:34 am, 1513516
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rise fractionally in the June update that’s scheduled for tomorrow (July 23), based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection for -0.12 is slightly above the -0.16 reading for May, ...