Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”


October 1, 2016, 8:34 am, 1680046

Among the Bankers: A Journey into the Heart of Finance
By Joris Luyendijk
Review via The Atlantic
How can bankers live with themselves after the destruction wrought by their industry? That’s in part what the ...


September 30, 2016, 8:34 am, 1679791

Volatility Managed Portfolios
Alan Moreira and Tyler Muir (Yale University)
June 18, 2016
Managed portfolios that take less risk when volatility is high produce large alphas, substantially increase factor Sharpe ratios, and produce large utility gains for mean-variance investors. We document this for the market, value, momentum, profitability, return ...


September 29, 2016, 8:34 am, 1679485

Correlations between asset classes have been trending up lately, a directional bias that could be a warning sign, according to several market observers.

Michael Harris at the Price Action Lab Blog yesterday advised that “the 60-day stock-bonds correlation spiked this month from about -0.50 to +0.20. A ...


September 28, 2016, 8:34 am, 1679164

You can find any answer you want by comparing the current curve to various points in its history. Over the past 30 trading days, for instance, the curve is more or less unchanged. But comparisons over longer periods reveal a modest flattening.

A flatter curve may be a ...


September 27, 2016, 8:34 am, 1678833

US economic growth estimates for the third quarter have been trimmed in recent weeks, but most analysts are still projecting a solid rebound. If the predictions are correct, output is on track to expand at the strongest pace in two years when the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the “advance” ...


September 26, 2016, 6:34 am, 1678453

All the major asset classes posted gains last week, based on a set of ETF proxies. Thanks in part to another decision by the Federal Reserve to forgo an interest-rate hike, investor sentiment turned bullish, driving up prices for the five trading days through Friday, Sep. 23.


September 24, 2016, 8:34 am, 1678182

The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, and Status in the Twenty-first Century
By Ryan Avent
Summary via publisher (St. Martin’s Press)
None of us has ever lived through a genuine industrial revolution. Until now. Digital ...


September 23, 2016, 8:34 am, 1677955

Morningstar tells us that efforts at taming volatility in a multi-asset class framework generally turns up mixed results among publicly traded funds. Studying 60 products that are labeled “multiasset volatility-protection funds,” a recent Morningstar article reports that “as a group, volatility-protection funds do generally offer refuge when equity markets ...


September 22, 2016, 10:34 am, 1677664

US economic output remained steady at a below-trend rate in August, based on this morning’s update of the three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3). Last month’s reading inched up to -0.07, the highest since Sep. 2015. But the slightly below-zero level reflects modest economic activity, ...


September 22, 2016, 8:34 am, 1677611

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday, which Janet Yellen insisted wasn’t because the central bank is downgrading its outlook on the economy. Quite the contrary, Fed Chair Janet Yellen advised. “Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy,” she said in a press ...