Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

May 27, 2015, 8:35 am, 1481081
How’s that second-quarter rebound working out for the US? It’s still a shaky affair, but there are signs that the macro trend has strengthened a bit, based on a preliminary review of sentiment indicators for May. At the very least, the latest numbers suggest that that the US isn’t slipping ...

May 27, 2015, 6:35 am, 1481005
● New Home Sales In US Rise 6% in April After Decline in March | NY Times ● US Home prices rose faster than expected in March | USA Today ● US service sector business activity expands at a slower pace in May | Markit ● The Conference Board US ...

May 26, 2015, 8:35 am, 1480353
The US economy is expected to grow at a faster rate in the second quarter vs. Q1, based on a variety of predictions, but the improvement may turn out to be a hollow achievement. Indeed, the hurdle is quite low for beating the near-flat expansion in the first three months ...

May 26, 2015, 6:35 am, 1480284
● US Inflation Closer to Fed’s Goal After Core Prices Advance | Bloomberg ● Yellen says Fed on track for first rate hike this year | USA Today ● German Growth and Confidence Slip | WSJ ● Capital Economics Expects Global Growth To Pick Up In Q2 | RTT ● ...

May 22, 2015, 6:35 pm, 1479357
With the arrival of the Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start of summer is here. And that, dear readers, provides an excuse for your editor to cease and desist from blogging for a few days. The usual routine resumes on Tuesday, May 26. Meantime, let’s not waste another minute. As ...

May 22, 2015, 8:35 am, 1478936
How’s that second-quarter rebound holding up? Well, it’s shaky. The economic reports in the weeks ahead could tell us otherwise, but the numbers published so far for May offer a mixed bag of results for the US economy. Let’s start with the good news. The outlook is certainly positive from ...

May 22, 2015, 6:35 am, 1478886
● US Manufacturing PMI eases to 16-month low in May | Markit ● US Existing Home Sales Fall Short of Expectations In April | Mortgage News Daily ● US Jobless Claims Rise, But Still Point to Growing Labor Market | WSJ ● US Leading Economic Index Climbs 0.7% In April, ...

May 21, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1478441
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s three-month average (CFNAI-MA3) ticked higher in April, but growth remained below the historical trend for the third month in a row. The latest string of three consecutive negative values represents the longest stretch of below-trend data in nearly two years. Still, CFNAI-MA3 inched up ...

May 21, 2015, 8:35 am, 1478293
Tobin’s Q, a market-valuation metric, is back in the news, in part thanks to a widely read Bloomberg article. The story, published earlier this week, offered the provocative title: “Nobel Winner’s Math Is Showing S&P 500 Unhinged From Reality.” Oh, my, that sounds serious. Or maybe not. As several observers ...

May 21, 2015, 6:35 am, 1478227
● Fed officials see June rate hike as unlikely: minutes | Reuters ● US mortgage applications drop for 4th straight week | RTT ● Eurozone Job creation at 4-year high as eco. growth slows in May: PMI | Markit ● Further slowing of German private sector output growth in May: ...