May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.
The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)
"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”
The US economy is on track to expand at the fastest rate in more than a year in the third quarter, according to projections for this Friday’s “advance” GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A range of estimates anticipate that quarterly output will top 2% (seasonally adjusted annual ...
The broad US economic trend decelerated in September for a second month in a row, according to today’s update of the three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3). The benchmark dipped to -0.21 last month, the lowest reading since May. The below-zero data indicates that economic ...
Markets roared back to life last week, rebounding after widespread losses in the previous week. The big winner for the five trading days through Oct. 21: emerging market stocks, which led the rally among a set of proxy ETFs representing the major asset classes. Meanwhile, last week’s losers ...
● Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner’s Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System
By Wesley R. Gray and Jack R. Vogel
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Quantitative Momentum brings momentum investing out of Wall Street and into ...
Media chatter about economic recessions tends to come in three flavors. One is the rarely seen diligent species that considers how the macro trend is evolving currently, and may evolve over the next month or so, based on a diversified set of metrics. Then there’s the long-run forecast that makes ...
The US economic trend remained positive through September: strong enough to keep recession risk at a low level but still too soft to fully dismiss concerns about the near-term outlook. Nonetheless, macro momentum has picked up a bit after decelerating earlier in the year—in line with the Capital Spectator’s recent ...
In a sign that the Federal Reserve is still on track to raise interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) M0 money supply declined 8.8% in September vs. the year-earlier level—the steepest annual slide since 1948, based on monthly data.
Red ink for the annual trend in real M0, also ...
Equal weighting asset allocation doesn’t look encouraging as a portfolio-design tool, based on last week’s preliminary analysis. Can we salvage equal weighting by expanding the opportunity set with a more granular mix of funds? In a word, no. As we’ll see, equal weighting across asset classes via a wider ...
US real estate investment trusts (REITs) posted the first weekly gain since mid-September for the five trading days through Oct 14. Commodities (broadly defined) gained ground last week too. But everything else was in the red among the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
● The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan
By Sebastian Mallaby
Review via The Economist
The former chairman of the Federal Reserve was once a hero. Now he is being called a ...