Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

October 20, 2014, 6:35 am, 1353892
Economic worries for the global economy are again taking a toll on sentiment these days, but the US macro trend shows few signs of stress, based on data through September. It remains to be seen if the resiliency holds up … Continue reading →

October 20, 2014, 6:35 am, 1353893
● World stocks advance on strong data, earnings | Reuters Global stocks climbed on Monday, with strong U.S. data and encouraging third-quarter earnings easing concerns about the pace of global economic recovery and raising appetite for riskier assets. ● Volatility … Continue reading →

October 18, 2014, 6:35 am, 1353348
● Forging Capitalism: Rogues, Swindlers, Frauds, and the Rise of Modern Finance by Ian Klaus Summary via publisher (Yale University Press) Vice is endemic to Western capitalism, according to this fascinating, wildly entertaining, often startling history of modern finance. Ian … Continue reading →

October 17, 2014, 10:35 am, 1352930
Housing starts rose 6.3% last month, primarily due to construction of multi-family units, according to this morning’s update from the US Census Bureau. The single-family slice of starts, by contrast, rose just 1.1% last month vs. August. The multi-family growth … Continue reading →

October 17, 2014, 8:35 am, 1352851
The crowd’s been repricing Treasuries lately on expectations that deflation risk is on the rise… again. But there’s no sign of it in the latest economic reports for the US. Why the disconnect? Treasuries, for good or ill, reflect fear … Continue reading →

October 17, 2014, 6:35 am, 1352779
● Stocks Stage Positive Reversal, Wiping Out Early Losses | IBD US stocks made several U-turns Thursday, eventually closing just above the break-even line. ● Data shows U.S. economy’s pulse is still strong | Reuters The number of Americans filing … Continue reading →

October 16, 2014, 10:35 am, 1352159
The sharp losses in the stock market lately suggest that the US economy faces a new round of headwinds. Yet there’s no sign of trouble in today’s updates on jobless claims and industrial production. In fact, the numbers du jour … Continue reading →

October 16, 2014, 6:35 am, 1352036
● Risk of Deflation Feeds Global Fears | Wall Street Journal Falling Commodities Prices Pressures Central Banks ● Bond Yields Worldwide Plunge to Record on Global-Growth Woes | Bloomberg U.S. 10-year Treasuries rose for an eighth day, the longest winning … Continue reading →

October 16, 2014, 6:35 am, 1352035
Housing starts are expected to increase to an annual pace of 999,000 in tomorrow’s update for September, based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast for several econometric forecasts. The projection represents a moderately higher number of starts vs. … Continue reading →

October 15, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1351605
US industrial production in September is projected to increase 0.2% vs. the previous month in tomorrow’s report from the Federal Reserve, according to The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The expected gain represents a modest revival … Continue reading →