Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

October 25, 2014, 8:34 am, 1357566
● Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values By Lawrence A. Cunningham Q&A with author via ValueWalk Q: What inspired you to write this book and what are some of its key implications? A: For one, it celebrates Berkshire Hathaway’s 50th anniversary under Warren Buffett’s leadership. And, for the ...

October 24, 2014, 8:34 am, 1357048
Healthcare is hot, energy is not. That’s the message in the trailing one-year total return data for ETFs that track the major sectors for the US equity market (see list below for tickers and links). Measured by one-total performance, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) is up nearly 24% ...

October 24, 2014, 6:35 am, 1356959
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October 23, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1356370
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October 23, 2014, 6:34 am, 1356139
● US Inflation Remains Tame | Wall St Journal Consumer-price index ticks up 0.1%, likely giving Fed leeway on rate hikes ● Euro-Area Manufacturing Grows as Risk of Recession Eases | Bloomberg A Purchasing Managers’ Index showed manufacturing in the region unexpectedly grew this month, while Spain’s economy showed signs ...

October 22, 2014, 10:34 am, 1355500
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October 22, 2014, 8:34 am, 1355423
Welcome to the big snapback… so far. The prices of risky assets have made a huge U-turn in recent days. Battered and bruised has given way to robust and rising. It may turn out to be a fleeting resurgence, but the rebound looks impressive at the moment. US real estate ...

October 22, 2014, 6:34 am, 1355344
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October 21, 2014, 8:34 am, 1354678
It’s still touch and go with risk warnings according to stock market volatility, but the threat pulled back from extreme levels yesterday. The VIX (a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500), for instance, dipped below 20 for the … Continue reading →

October 21, 2014, 6:34 am, 1354602
● China’s growth slowest since global crisis, annual target at risk | Reuters China grew at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis in the September quarter and risks missing its official target for the first time in 15 … Continue reading →