Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

April 24, 2014, 8:35 am, 1260256
The latest batch of housing numbers offer a mixed view at best for this key sector. The March data for new housing starts and residential building permits are above their recent lows, but the gains are sluggish compared to the … Continue reading →

April 23, 2014, 6:36 am, 1259402
It’s widely recognized that the manufacturing sector is highly sensitive to the business cycle. Employment trends in this corner tend to react earlier to macro distress compared with payrolls generally. As a result, monitoring this slice of the labor market … Continue reading →

April 22, 2014, 12:35 pm, 1258902
Has the slow decline in the pace of consumer price inflation in the US hit bottom? If so, is that good news for the economy? A cautious “yes” applies in both cases, albeit with the usual caveats. Looking at the … Continue reading →

April 21, 2014, 10:36 am, 1258235
I’m always on the prowl for rebalancing opportunities–in particular, those moments when the odds look unusually high for success in one or more ETFs. Instances of screaming buys or sells are rare, of course, and when they do arrive the … Continue reading →

April 19, 2014, 8:36 am, 1257766
● Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions By Gerd Gigerenzer Summary via publisher, Viking In the age of Big Data we often believe that our predictions about the future are better than ever before. But as risk expert Gerd … Continue reading →

April 18, 2014, 10:38 am, 1257566
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline slightly to -0.26 in the March update that’s scheduled for release on Monday (April 21), according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. In the … Continue reading →

April 18, 2014, 8:37 am, 1257522
So much for pessimism. Most of the key economic reports for March are in and the general message looks encouraging… again. You can never say anything definitive about the business cycle in real time, but the data in hand today … Continue reading →

April 17, 2014, 4:36 pm, 1257225
In the coming days I’ll be publishing passages from my new book–Nowcasting The Business Cycle: A Practical Guide For Spotting Business Cycle Peaks Ahead Of The Crowd. Let’s kick off the first of several excerpts with an obvious starting point… … Continue reading →

April 17, 2014, 8:36 am, 1256928
There’s a growing list of economic clues that suggest that the moderate pace of expansion, although battered and bruised in January and February, revived last month. Consider yesterday’s update on industrial output, which increased 0.7% in March—a gain that translates … Continue reading →

April 16, 2014, 8:35 am, 1256273
The Federal Reserve is mulling a new set of tougher banking rules to boost the odds that the financial system will remain sufficiently liquid when the next crisis strikes. It’s a worthy goal, if only because one day another event … Continue reading →