Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

February 13, 2016, 6:35 am, 1608346
● Postcapitalism: A Guide to Our Future By Paul Mason Review via The Guardian Mason, like Marx, believes that capitalism will collapse under the weight of its own internal contradictions. These include unsustainable levels of debt on the part of both individuals and nations (“2008 was the tremor in advance ...

February 12, 2016, 10:34 am, 1608071
US retail sales rose a moderate 0.2% in January, the Census Bureau reports. The gain offers another clue for thinking that the stock market’s plunge this year may be a false warning about the near-term macro outlook. In fact, when you look at retail spending’s year-over-year rate, today’s release shows ...

February 12, 2016, 8:34 am, 1608026
The battle between macro and markets rages on. Yesterday’s update of the ADS Index—a US business-cycle metric published by the Philadelphia Fed—remained comfortably in growth territory, in part due to yesterday’s upbeat report on jobless claims (one of the index’s six components). A markets-based estimate of the US economic trend, ...

February 12, 2016, 6:35 am, 1608002
● US jobless claims fall to lowest level in 7 weeks | Bloomberg ● US Consumer Comfort Index holds close to a 3-mo high | Bloomberg ● Fed won’t backpedal on interest rates, Janet Yellen says | NY Times ● Yellen: Negative rates not “off the table” | USA Today ...

February 11, 2016, 12:34 pm, 1607678
No change is expected for US retail sales in tomorrow’s January report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average prediction marks a slight improvement vs. the fractional decline posted in the previous month. The Capital Spectator’s average forecast for ...

February 11, 2016, 10:34 am, 1607623
New filings for unemployment benefits fell 16,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 269,000, according to this morning’s weekly report from the US Labor Department. The slide represents a timely challenge to the dark outlook that’s currently reflected in a markets-based forecast for the US economy. In other words, there’s ...

February 11, 2016, 6:35 am, 1607537
● Fed’s Yellen Sounds a More Cautious Note on US Economy | NY Times ● Assessing Yellen’s Warning That Markets Pose Threat to Economy | Bloomberg ● Mortgage refi applications spike due to low interest rates | HousingWire ● Ex-Fed’s Bernanke: Negative Funds Rate Unlikely in Near Future | MNI ...

February 11, 2016, 6:35 am, 1607536
Fed Chair Janet Yellen yesterday said that the recent weakness in financial markets may be a warning sign for the US economy. “Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth,” she advised in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. “These developments, if ...

February 10, 2016, 8:34 am, 1607166
The positive bias to the US stock market over the long run means that drawdowns rarely exceed 10%. But this isn’t one of those times. The S&P 500 is posting a decline in excess of 10% from the market’s previous peak, offering one more sign that the trend is weak—the ...

February 10, 2016, 6:34 am, 1607123
● Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Win in New Hampshire | NY Times ● Yellen to face Congress amid uncertainty on Fed policy | WaPo ● US job openings at near-record 5.6 million in Dec | CNBC ● US small business optimism index falls to 2yr low in Jan | ...