Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”


July 29, 2016, 8:35 am, 1658555

The US stock market has been trading at or near record highs recently, a performance that inspires some analysts to predict that the long-running equity bull market is still poised for even greater heights. But viewed in context with the bond market, the relative return spread in favor of stocks ...


July 28, 2016, 8:35 am, 1658110

The question went viral this week after Paul Westra, an analyst at Stifel Financial Corp., raised the possibility in a research note. Bloomberg on Tuesday published a news story about the implied forecast, noting that the “this doesn’t just bode ill for restaurants, but could point to trouble across the ...


July 27, 2016, 8:35 am, 1657645

The Federal Reserve is expected to forgo a rate hike in today’s FOMC policy announcement and keep the target Fed funds at a 0.25%-to-0.50% range. But the recent increase in the effective Fed funds rate (EFF) suggests that a hawkish bias is bubbling.

EFF’s day-to-day changes can be ...


July 26, 2016, 8:35 am, 1657190

US economic growth is on track to post an encouraging rebound in this Friday’s “advance” GDP report for the second quarter. By most estimates, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report that output will rise by 2%-plus in Q2, well above the subdued 1.1% rise in Q1 ...


July 25, 2016, 8:35 am, 1656777

Summertime sizzle was on full display last week for US real estate investment trusts (REITs). These securities delivered the strongest gains for the five trading days through July 22, based on set of ETF proxies for the major asset classes. US REITs also continue to hold the top spot ...


July 23, 2016, 6:35 am, 1656420

Overcomplicated: Technology at the Limits of Comprehension
By Samuel Arbesman
Review via Publishers Weekly
Arbesman (The Half-Life of Facts), a self-described “complexity scientist,” presents a new framework for understanding and working with complex technological systems ...


July 22, 2016, 8:35 am, 1656147

There’s a myth going around that tracking the business cycle is a waste of time for investors. On the surface, the reasoning sounds logical. By the time it’s clear that the US has slipped into a recession, it’s too late to tone down equity positions because Mr. Market has already ...


July 21, 2016, 8:35 am, 1655692

Upside momentum continues to favor utility stocks, which retain top billing among US sectors in the one-year total return column via a set of proxy ETFs. These companies have been strong all year, which is starting to worry some analysts. Brian Krawez at Scharf Investments, for instance, told Forbes ...


July 20, 2016, 6:35 am, 1655270

The first half of 2016 has been a rocky road for the US economy, but the macro trend has muddled through and continues to post growth that appears to be strong enough to avoid a new recession. The main sources for keeping the expansion alive: job growth and consumer spending.


July 19, 2016, 2:35 pm, 1655059

The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to tick higher in tomorrow’s June report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection for -0.17 reflects a moderate improvement over the previous month. The forecast for June continues ...