Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

November 21, 2014, 10:34 am, 1375733
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decelerate to a +0.11 reading in the October update that’s scheduled for release on Monday (Nov. 24), based on The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is moderately below the ...

November 21, 2014, 8:34 am, 1375643
In the horse race among the major asset classes, there’s not much competition for first place at the moment. US REITs remain in the lead for the trailing one-year period (250 trading days), and by a wide margin, based on our standard list of ETF proxies for the key slices ...

November 21, 2014, 6:34 am, 1375574
Paul Krugman seems to be having a supply-side-economics moment… sort of. Raising taxes, the NY Times columnist and Nobel laureate has been arguing lately, threatens Japan’s fragile economic recovery. “Shinzo Abe is doing the right thing, seeking to delay the next rise in consumption taxes,” Krugman wrote on his blog ...

November 21, 2014, 4:34 am, 1375506
● US Leading Economic Index Increased Again In October | Conference Board ● US October consumer prices flat; core CPI up 0.2% | USA Today ● Eurozone Nov Flash Consumer Confidence Falls Unexpectedly | RTT ● UKIP, Populist Anti-E.U. Party, Wins 2nd Seat in Britain’s Parliament | NY Times ● ...

November 20, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1375054
The first hint that the global economy’s recent weakness is creeping into the US arrived in today’s preliminary November update of the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This survey of business conditions in the manufacturing sector reflected slower growth for this month’s flash estimate. Dipping to 54.7, the ...

November 20, 2014, 10:34 am, 1374973
New filings for unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 291,000 for the week through November 15, the Labor Department reports. It’s a relatively minor change, but today’s update provides more evidence that the broad slide in jobless claims rolls on. The latest reading remains close to the 14-year ...

November 20, 2014, 8:34 am, 1374897
The outlook for the global economy is suffering these days, but there’s still no clear sign that the deceleration in macro activity has infected the US. Based on the latest numbers for October, the broad trend for the US remains distinctly positive. A diversified mix of economic and financial indicators ...

November 20, 2014, 6:34 am, 1374831
● Flash Germany PMI: growth drops to 16-month low in Nov | Markit ● November flash PMI signals weakest eurozone growth for 16 months | Markit ● Flash China Manufacturing PMI Flat In Nov At 6-month low | Markit ● Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI shows moderate growth in November | ...

November 19, 2014, 10:34 am, 1374259
The pace of new residential housing construction slumped last month, dipping to 1.009 million units (annualized) in October — down nearly 3% from September’s total, the US Census Bureau reports. Newly issued building permits, on the other hand, perked up by nearly 5%, offering a brighter outlook for the near ...

November 19, 2014, 8:34 am, 1374165
New York Fed President William Dudley is inclined to ignore the recent drop in inflation forecasts via the Treasury market. In a speech last week, he explained that “in assessing inflation expectations, I currently put more weight on survey-based measures of inflation expectations as opposed to market-based measures.” The distinction ...