Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

September 28, 2017, 7:08 am, 1780348

Forecasters continue to project a moderately slower increase in US economic activity for the third quarter vs. Q2, based on the average estimate for several models and economic surveys compiled by The Capital Spectator. The expected pace is strong enough to keep the economy humming, but the latest numbers suggest ...

September 28, 2017, 5:08 am, 1780317

Trump outlines plan for hefty tax cuts: The Hill
US durable goods orders bounce back in August: Reuters
Pending Homes Sales Index for US falls 2.6% in August: CNBC
Extreme weather may trigger surge in wealth-related migration: Bloomberg

September 27, 2017, 7:08 am, 1779879

The recent revival in shares of financial stocks has lifted this corner of the US equity market to the top-performing sector for one-year performance, based on a set of ETFs. The change in leadership is also a function of technology’s latest stumble – a slide that’s trimmed the formerly first-place ...

September 27, 2017, 5:08 am, 1779842

Fed Chair Yellen says rate hikes will continue despite low inflation: Reuters
President Trump expected to unveil new tax plan: Politico
US Consumer Confidence Index slips in Aug after hurricanes: USA Today
New US home sales fall to 8-month ...

September 26, 2017, 7:28 am, 1779424

If you’re confused about the state of the US economy and what it means for monetary policy, you’re not alone. Speeches by Federal Reserve bank presidents on Monday outlined starkly different tones on the inflation outlook, which suggests that the case for more interest-rate hikes in the near term remains ...

September 26, 2017, 5:08 am, 1779393

N. Korea says it reserves the right to shoot down US bombers: Reuters
Chicago Fed Index reflects slower US growth in August: Chicago Fed
Growth rate in Texas manufacturing sector remains strong in Sep: Dallas Fed
Fed’s Evans says ...

September 25, 2017, 6:39 am, 1779037

Equities in foreign developed markets delivered the strongest gain last week for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The modest advance marked the sixth increase in as many weeks for these markets.

Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA) edged up 0.5% for the ...

September 25, 2017, 5:28 am, 1778997

Merkel wins 4th term as German chancellor: Reuters
Yellen and Cohn are considered the frontrunners to lead Fed: NY Times
US business inflation outlook unchanged at 1.9% in September: Atlanta Fed
Dollar-denominated debt obligations outside US continues to rise: ...

September 24, 2017, 8:40 pm, 1778928

The Sep. 24 edition of The US Business Cycle Risk Report has been published and emailed to subscribers.

September 23, 2017, 7:29 am, 1778719