Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

November 26, 2015, 8:34 am, 1582473
The rumors are true–a long holiday weekend has been declared at the world headquarters of The Capital Spectator. After several days of feast and fête, the standard fare resumes on Monday, Nov. 30. Happy Thanksgiving!

November 25, 2015, 10:34 am, 1581961
Consumer spending in the US continued to rise at a snail’s pace, rising 0.1% in October, according to this morning’s release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s the second month in a row for 0.1% growth, marking the weakest two-month period for consumption in eight months. Economists were expecting ...

November 25, 2015, 8:34 am, 1581882
Momentum has received a lot of attention in the asset-pricing literature over the past several decades, and for good reason. Trending behavior is a staple in markets. In contrast with other pricing “anomalies”, short-term return persistence—positive and negative—is a robust factor across asset classes. The fact that momentum is deployed ...

November 25, 2015, 6:35 am, 1581850
● US Q3 GDP growth revised up to 2.1% | Reuters ● Consumer confidence falls to 14-mo low in Nov | MarketWatch ● Richmond Fed: “manufacturing activity slowed” in November | Richmond Fed ● US Q3 corporate profits fall at steepest rate since recession | WSJ ● US home prices ...

November 24, 2015, 8:34 am, 1581234
Fed Chair Janet Yellen yesterday reaffirmed the case for keeping interest rates near zero percent and raising rates slowly in the future. But the Treasury market seemed to have a mixed reaction. The 2-year yield–widely followed as the most-sensitive spot on the curve for rate expectations—ticked higher, rising to a ...

November 24, 2015, 6:34 am, 1581165
● Chicago Fed: US growth rate ticks up in Oct | Chicago Fed ● PMI: US mfg growth slows to 2-year low in Nov | Markit ● Fed’s Yellen argues for cautious policy for rate hikes | Reuters ● US existing home sales fall in Oct after sharp Sep gain ...

November 23, 2015, 10:34 am, 1580679
US economic growth continued to weaken in October, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3). Last month’s reading slipped to -0.20, the lowest since Mar. 2015. But even after the latest decline, this benchmark of economic activity remains well above its ...

November 23, 2015, 8:34 am, 1580612
Emerging-markets equities enjoyed a solid rise last week among the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs. Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock (VWO) posted a solid 4.5% total return for the five days of trading through Nov. 20, edging out the number-two performer for the week, US real ...

November 23, 2015, 8:34 am, 1580611
The US economy is on track for a modest rebound in the fourth quarter, according to GDP projections from several sources. Although it’s still early for developing robust estimates for Q4, most economists are looking for improvement over Q3’s tepid 1.5% rise in GDP (seasonally adjusted annual rate). The Capital ...

November 23, 2015, 6:34 am, 1580532
● Eurozone Composite PMI rise to 4-1/2 year high in Nov | Markit ● Germany Composite PMI ticks up to 3-mo high in Nov | Markit ● France Composite PMI slips to 3-mo low in Nov | Markit ● Kansas City mfg index in Nov: first positive reading since Feb ...