The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
June Payroll Employment
The slowndown in employment growth over the past few months is starting to become more apparent in the graph below.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
Focus on the Problem
U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million jobs in February 2001. For April 2012, U.S. payroll employment had reached 133.0 million jobs, marking the third month in a row above the February 2001 level.
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Looking Up At 2001
In February 2001, U.S. payroll employment peaked at 132.5 million. The November 2011 figure of 131.7 million still falls 800,000 jobs short of the earlier peak.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Greg Mankiw has a talent for cutting to the chase when it comes to observations of macro and finance and he doesn't disappoint in his latest NY Times column, which summarizes his view on how to answer the question: What stocks should I buy? The Harvard professor explains that ...
● From a Market Economy to a Finance Economy: The Most Dangerous American Journey
By A. Coskun Samli
Summary via publisher, Palgrave Macmillan
Dwindling innovation and deteriorating economic conditions are caused by a major force, a systemic shift ...
Economic updates in recent weeks suggest that the economy is facing new headwinds. Notably, Industrial production and housing starts slumped in April. The latest data points may imply trouble down the road, but the case is still weak for arguing that the economy's suffering in the here and ...
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rebound moderately to +0.20 in the April report, according to The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. That compares with CFNAI's -0.01 three-month average for March. A value below -0.70 indicates an "increasing likelihood" that a recession ...
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If the scandal over monitoring political groups that forced the acting commissioner of the IRS to resign this week doesn't inspire dismantling the tax-collecting agency and introducing a flat tax, nothing will. It won't happen, of course. But it should. There are easier, more efficient ways to collect taxes ...
Industrial production fell more than expected last month, sliding 0.5% in April. That’s a bit deeper than economists projected, and it's an even bigger drop relative to the modest gain that my econometric modeling suggested. But based on today's release, it's obvious that April was a rough month ...
Housing starts are expected to total 1.013 million in April in tomorrow’s update, based on The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast (seasonally adjusted annual rate). That’s a modest decline vs. the previously reported total of 1.036 million for March. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator's projected gain for April is well above ...