Economics Roundtable

Technical Problems 3/9/15

The website was down several hours today, but is back up now.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


Click on the image to get a bigger version.


Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”


July 2, 2015, 8:35 am, 1500532
● US private-sector job growth accelerated in June via ADP’s estimate… ● As US factory activity rose to a 5-month high in June… ● US construction spending reached a post-recession high in May… ● While mortgage applications in the US fell 4.7% last week… ● Global manufacturing growth eased closer ...


July 1, 2015, 10:35 am, 1499959
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 211,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s update for June from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a substantially lesser gain vs. the 262,000 advance in May. Two estimates ...


July 1, 2015, 8:35 am, 1499873
The markets staggered to the year’s midpoint with a thud, with most of the major asset classes suffering losses in June. The exception: broadly defined commodities (Bloomberg Commodity Index), which posted a modest 1.7% gain last month. The rest of the field was either flat or (in most cases) in ...


July 1, 2015, 6:35 am, 1499818
● Greece in default as eurozone set to discuss new bailout proposal… ● US consumer confidence rises in June, beats forecasts… ● US S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index annual pace eases to 4.2% gain in April… ● PMI: Initial estimate of euro area manufacturing growth in June confirmed… ● As ...


June 30, 2015, 12:35 pm, 1499358
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to tick fractionally lower to 52.7 in tomorrow’s update for June vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is still above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook still calls for ...


June 30, 2015, 10:35 am, 1499281
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 200,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s June update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection is fractionally below May’s increase. Two estimates based on recent surveys of ...


June 30, 2015, 8:35 am, 1499207
The escalating Greek crisis has raised new questions about the timing of the Federal Reserve’s plans for the first US rate hike since 2006. But by some accounts, it’s still mostly noise on this side the Atlantic. “This isn’t a ‘watch Greece’ situation,” says Roberto Perli, a former Fed staffer ...


June 30, 2015, 6:35 am, 1499114
● Greece is set to default at the end of today… ● But the Greek crisis isn’t expected to delay the Fed’s first rate hike… ● Meanwhile, US pending home sales rose to a 9-year high in May… ● As Puerto Rico faces bankruptcy… ● Eurozone inflation ticked lower this ...


June 29, 2015, 10:35 am, 1498577
We’re all backtesters in some degree, but not all backtested strategies are created equal. One of the more common (and dangerous) mistakes is 1) backtesting a strategy based on the historical record; 2) documenting an encouraging performance record; and 3) assuming that you’re done. Rigorous testing, however, requires more. Why? ...


June 29, 2015, 6:35 am, 1498435
● Greece is on the brink… again still, but this time it’s far more acute as the government closes banks and imposes capital controls, pushing the beleaguered nation closer to default and a hasty exit from the euro… ● Meanwhile, back in the US, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index ...