Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

September 1, 2015, 12:34 pm, 1537383
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 194,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s August update of the ADP Employment Report vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a modestly stronger gain vs. July’s advance. ...

September 1, 2015, 10:34 am, 1537307
US economic risk increased at the end of August, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +0.4% yesterday (August 31) after briefly slipping into mildly negative territory for several days last week. MMRI’s temporary dip into the red in late-August marks the ...

September 1, 2015, 8:34 am, 1537234
August was a painful month for most markets around the world. Other than fractional gains in foreign bond markets (mainly in developed countries), last month delivered a deep shade of red ink far and wide. The big loser: stocks in emerging markets (MSCI EM Index), which shed a hefty 9.0% ...

September 1, 2015, 6:34 am, 1537175
● Dallas Fed Index: General Business Activity Index tumbles in August ● Chicago PMI ticks down to 54.4 for Aug, but remains in solid growth territory ● Eurozone PMI: manufacturing activity steady at moderate growth level in August ● China PMI: factory output falls sharply in August ● Eurozone unemployment ...

August 31, 2015, 10:34 am, 1536669
The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to tick higher to 53.0 in tomorrow’s update for August vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is moderately above the neutral 50.0 mark and so the current outlook still translates into a ...

August 31, 2015, 8:34 am, 1536605
Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer over the weekend laid out the rationale for raising US interest rates in the near future, perhaps as early as next month. His reasoning boils down to two main arguments. One, “the economy has continued to recover and the labor market is approaching our maximum ...

August 31, 2015, 6:34 am, 1536529
● US personal income & spending rise in July ● US consumer sentiment slips to 3-month low in August ● A Fed rate hike in September? Maybe, says Fed Vice Chairman Fischer ● Eurozone flash estimate of annual inflation in Aug: stable but close to flat at 0.2% ● German ...

August 29, 2015, 8:34 am, 1536101
● Making Sense of Markets: An Investor’s Guide to Profiting Amidst the Gloom By Kevin Gardiner Summary via publisher (Palgrave Macmillan) Making Sense of Markets argues that received wisdom is still far too pessimistic, and that investment opportunities have been missed as a result. It suggests that the great panic ...

August 28, 2015, 10:34 am, 1535701
Consumer spending and income continued to post moderate gains, according to this morning’s update for July from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Inflation remained tame in the report, with the personal consumption expenditures index higher by only 0.3% from a year earlier. Otherwise the numbers du jour reaffirm the ...

August 28, 2015, 8:34 am, 1535622
Treasury yields held on to their modest rebound this week through Thursday’s close, ahead of the Federal Reserve annual conference that begins today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. No doubt the discussions will center on whether the central bank will begin raising interest rates at its Sept. 16-17 policy meeting. Earlier ...