Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”

October 5, 2015, 10:34 am, 1553252
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) dipped again in September. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.2% over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used ...

October 5, 2015, 8:34 am, 1553192
DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach says that it’s too early to start buying junk bonds. Although below-investment-grade fixed-income securities have been sliding for more than a year, the negative momentum may not be over yet, he explains. “I’ll think about buying when it stops going down every single day,” he tells ...

October 5, 2015, 6:34 am, 1553134
● US employment growth falls sharply in September | Reuters ● US factory orders slide 1.7% in August–the most in 8 mos. | USN&WR ● US dollar’s rise is weighing on US economy | NY Times ● Rising credit spreads cast a dark shadow over macro outlook | Economist ● ...

October 4, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1553031
Curious about The US Business Cycle Risk Report? Today’s your lucky day. Here’s a free sample… hot off the press. For details, see our Premium Research section.

October 3, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1552849
Robeco’s Lukas Daalder has a bit of an issue with rolling-performance graphics. Bashing a recent chart of 1-year price returns on these pages that profiled ETF proxies for the major asset classes, he charges that “this information is useless to anyone with any sense.” Oh, dear. That sounds like trouble. ...

October 3, 2015, 8:34 am, 1552789
● Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction By Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Review via Inverse Phil Tetlock believes we can predict the future — we, us, anyone. In his new book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, the Wharton management professor and psychologist makes the case ...

October 2, 2015, 10:34 am, 1552395
Today’s payrolls report from Washington is ugly. The crowd was expecting that today’s jobs report from the Labor Department would show that US companies added 200,000 positions in September. Instead, today’s release shows that private payrolls increased by a weak 118,000. The good news is that the year-over-year trend is ...

October 2, 2015, 8:34 am, 1552336
The recent market turbulence has knocked the health care sector from its leadership role in performance terms among the major US equity sectors. The crown has passed to consumer discretionary stocks, based on trailing one-year total return data for a set of ETF proxies. Although all corners of the US ...

October 2, 2015, 6:34 am, 1552312
● US jobless claims rise, but stick close to 15-year low | Bloomberg ● US ISM Mfg Index in Sep slips to lowest level since January | WSJ ● US Mfg PMI in Sep at second-lowest level since Oct 2013 | Markit ● US construction spending in Aug rises to ...

October 1, 2015, 2:34 pm, 1551944
Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 177,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September report from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a modest improvement over the weak 140,000 gain in August. Two estimates based ...