May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.
The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)
"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”
● Missed Information: Better Information for Building a Wealthier, More Sustainable Future
By David Sarokin and Jay Schulkin
Summary via publisher (MIT Press)
Information is power. It drives commerce, protects nations, and forms the backbone of ...
Do Stock Market Trading Activities Forecast Recessions?
Ujjal Chatterjee (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, American University of Sharjah)
August 9, 2016
This paper re-examines the existing recession forecasting models with stock market liquidity as an additional forecasting variable. We investigate three distinct aspects of stock market trading activities, namely stock market ...
US economic growth continues to rebound after a soft patch in the first half of the year. Supported by stronger job growth in June and July, the firmer trend in the actual data follows projections published by The US Business Cycle Risk Report and The Capital Spectator ...
Economic output in the US is on track to rebound sharply in the third quarter, according to several estimates. Some analysts are looking for growth in excess of 3% when the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the “advance” Q3 report on Oct. 28. Even the cautious forecasts are generally anticipating ...
Fed fund futures continue to imply a low probability of a rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting, but the annual trend in real (inflation-adjusted) base money supply points to a slightly firmer bias for anticipating another round of monetary policy tightening in the near-term future.
US economic growth strengthened for the second month in a row in July, according to this morning’s update of the three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3). Last month’s reading ticked up to -0.10, the highest level since February. Today’s update effectively confirms that the recession ...
Commodities rebounded sharply last week, posting the strongest gain among the major asset classes, based on a set of representative exchange-traded products. The rise marks the second weekly increase for broadly defined commodities.
The iPath Commodity (DJP) popped 2.8% for the five trading days through Aug. 19. ...
The Capital Spectator will be on furlough for the rest of the week, focusing on recreational R&D in an undisclosed location. The standard routine resumes on Monday, Aug. 22. Cheers!
The relatively obscure corner of foreign inflation-linked government bonds edged out the rest of the field last week with 2.1% total return, based on a set of proxy ETFs for the major asset classes. The performance was just enough to fractionally pull ahead of foreign stocks in developed markets, ...
● Inside the Investments of Warren Buffett: Twenty Cases
By Yefei Lu
Summary via publisher (Columbia University Press)
Since the 1950s, Warren Buffett and his partners have backed some of the twentieth century’s most profitable, trendsetting ...