Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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The Capital Speculator (J. Picerno)

"Money, Oil, Economics & the Search for the Bottom Line”


October 25, 2014, 8:34 am, 1357566
● Berkshire Beyond Buffett: The Enduring Value of Values By Lawrence A. Cunningham Q&A with author via ValueWalk Q: What inspired you to write this book and what are some of its key implications? A: For one, it celebrates Berkshire Hathaway’s 50th anniversary under Warren Buffett’s leadership. And, for the ...


October 24, 2014, 8:34 am, 1357048
Healthcare is hot, energy is not. That’s the message in the trailing one-year total return data for ETFs that track the major sectors for the US equity market (see list below for tickers and links). Measured by one-total performance, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) is up nearly 24% ...


October 24, 2014, 6:35 am, 1356959
● Treasuries Advance as NY Ebola Case Boosts Safest Assets | Bloomberg Treasuries rose the most in a week after a doctor in New York City tested positive for Ebola, spurring demand for the haven assets amid concern any outbreak of the virus can weigh on the global economy. ● ...


October 23, 2014, 12:34 pm, 1356370
Three economic updates today provide more evidence that moderate growth endures for the US. The numbers du jour—weekly jobless claims, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and Markit’s US purchasing managers index (PMI) for manufacturing—paint an upbeat profile of the macro trend. The main takeaway: the deflationary threat festering in ...


October 23, 2014, 6:34 am, 1356139
● US Inflation Remains Tame | Wall St Journal Consumer-price index ticks up 0.1%, likely giving Fed leeway on rate hikes ● Euro-Area Manufacturing Grows as Risk of Recession Eases | Bloomberg A Purchasing Managers’ Index showed manufacturing in the region unexpectedly grew this month, while Spain’s economy showed signs ...


October 22, 2014, 10:34 am, 1355500
The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decelerate a bit to +0.03 in tomorrow’s update for September, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection is marginally below August’s +0.07 reading, which reflected above-average economic growth ...


October 22, 2014, 8:34 am, 1355423
Welcome to the big snapback… so far. The prices of risky assets have made a huge U-turn in recent days. Battered and bruised has given way to robust and rising. It may turn out to be a fleeting resurgence, but the rebound looks impressive at the moment. US real estate ...


October 22, 2014, 6:34 am, 1355344
● Existing home sales hit highest level in 2014 | USA Today Existing home sales last month were the strongest this year, but remained below year-earlier levels for the 11th straight month, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. ● US Q3 Real GDP Still Looks Solid | First Trust ...


October 21, 2014, 8:34 am, 1354678
It’s still touch and go with risk warnings according to stock market volatility, but the threat pulled back from extreme levels yesterday. The VIX (a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500), for instance, dipped below 20 for the … Continue reading →


October 21, 2014, 6:34 am, 1354602
● China’s growth slowest since global crisis, annual target at risk | Reuters China grew at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis in the September quarter and risks missing its official target for the first time in 15 … Continue reading →