Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”

November 23, 2014, 8:34 am, 1376450

This post by Richard reminds me that we need more class-consciousness.

Rightists often argue that class war can be divisive and mean-spirited. But as Richard points out, the opposite is (also?) true. The reduced salience of class divisions has led not to a healthy community ...

November 21, 2014, 8:34 am, 1375641

So far this month, the FTSE 100 has risen 2.7%. There's a link between this fact and Emily Thornberry's resignation for that tweet.

The Footsie's gain is consistent with one of the strongest tendencies in finance - for Halloween to be ...

November 20, 2014, 10:34 am, 1374972

Julie Bindel reminds me of one of my pet theories - that nobody is much interested in politics. By nobody I don't just mean ordinary Joes and Joannas but also people who think of themselves as political, and even professional politicians.

Let's start by defining ...

November 18, 2014, 10:35 am, 1373436

Myleene Klass's attack on the Mansion Tax has been met with cheering on the right and mockery on the left. Such tribalism overlooks a more important point - that the celebocracy which leads TV bosses to put people like Myleene onto political shows has ...

November 17, 2014, 10:34 am, 1372739

In today's Guardian, David Cameron commits one of the most atrocious non sequiturs I've ever seen.

He begins from a reasonable premise - that "wider problems in the global economy pose a real risk to our recovery at home": emerging markets are slowing down; the ...

November 16, 2014, 8:34 am, 1372343

Reading Luis Garicano and Lucrezia Reichlin's argument for the creation of a synthetic safe eurobond through which the ECB can conduct QE, an old question arose: why do we see so much bad financial innovation and so little good?

I say this is an old ...

November 15, 2014, 10:34 am, 1372047

his week, I have read Dashiell Hammett's Red Harvest. And it struck me that this book - indeed Hammett's world - is a valuable corrective to the dominant worldview of our time.

What I mean is that we all have unspoken preconceptions of how we ...

November 14, 2014, 10:34 am, 1371427

After a very enjoyable week of staycationing, I'm back at work. And it hurts. Which makes me wonder: is there an economic case for high house prices and university tuition fees?

To see my point, consider this paper by Alex Bryson and George MacKerron. They ...

November 13, 2014, 8:34 am, 1370512

"All British parties seem to compete within the ideological and political bounds set by New Labour" writes Lilia Giugni. Ross McKibbin agrees, saying Miliband is surrounded by neo-Blairites. So does Eunice Goes, who laments that many Labour backbenchers are living in the ...

November 12, 2014, 6:34 am, 1369623

Inspired by John Goldthorpe's claim that downward social mobility is increasing, the Times (£) and Guardian have reported on individuals' experiences of social mobility.

In this context, I am a pin-up boy for upward mobility. I was the first person in my family ...