May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Stumbling and Mumbling
"An extremist, not a fanatic”
I have often accused rightists of making a "small truths, big error" rhetorical trick - of using a small truth to disguise a big mistake. I fear, though, that this post by Richard Murphy shows that the left can do the same thing.
One curiosity of the Scottish referendum campaign has been that polls show that Alex Salmond is less distrusted than other politicians. For example, when Yougov asked "how much do you trust the statements and claims made by the following people?" they found that 40% ...
Economists have recently been abandoning once-core concepts in macroeconomics such as the money multiplier and IS-LM model. This week's figures remind me of something I'd also throw on the bonfire - the Phillips curve.
My chart shows ...
Martin Wolf says something that I'm in two minds about:
People have to understand, when they're being taught economics, how little we know, how limited our data are, and how unbelievably complex our economic and financial system is.
I think people have to begin with profound humility ...
Nick Cohen has brilliantly described how the arts and media are becoming dominated by public school products to the exclusion of people like us. This makes the irrational class-hating part of me - which is the biggest part - want to take up arms. ...
Back in the day, a concatenation of circumstances led to me being alone in a room with a well-known economist who was then advising governments around the world. I thought I'd start the conversation with the anodyne remark "it must be a fascinating challenge to give policy advice ...
To what extent is the Scottish referendum about the benefits of independence and to what extent is it about people's attitudes to risk?
To see my question, think of independence as an investment with a risky payoff - which is what it is.
There are two ...
Whatever the result of the Scotish referendum, almost half of all Scots will be disappointed, some very much so. Would there have been a better way of arranging things?
Possibly. I'm thinking of a demand-revealing referendum. The idea here is simple. Rather than simply put ...
What I mean is that there's a big difference between knowing something and acting on it. We ...
Matthew Parris's piece in the Times has become notorious. However, he is raising an important point about political psychology which demands more attention than it gets.
I am not arguing that we should be careless of the needs of struggling people and places ...