May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Stumbling and Mumbling
"An extremist, not a fanatic”
Diane Coyle’s question – what should the well-read student read? – has prompted some good answers, not least her own. But for me it raises a question: are there some classic books which are age-specific – which youngsters might love but older folk not, and vice versa?
Since the Cologne sex attacks, there has been even more of a backlash against immigration in Europe. Whilst the details of those attacks are unclear, I wonder: might increased crime be the price we must pay for doing our moral duty?
I ask because of ...
I’ve two beefs with the word.
One is that it presumes that elections are predictable. But ...
The living wage could put some people out of work even if it has only small effects upon aggregate employment.
I say so because of a new paper by Jan Kabatek which studies the effect of the Dutch minimum wage, which increases with age for workers ...
Tyler Cowen says leftists:
don’t have nearly enough Mill in their thought, and not nearly enough emphasis on individual liberty...This is one reason why the commitment of the current Left to free speech just isn’t very strong.
This poses the question: what might be the links between ...
Progress says that Labour should stop blaming the media. I agree. People don’t vote Tory simply because newspapers tell them to do so - if they did, Labour would be even more unpopular than it is – although it’s possible that the media shapes voters’ perceptions in ...
One of my favourite theories about the long post-war boom is that wage ...
Robert Peston interprets Deborah Mattinson’s report on Labour’s election defeat as saying that “Labour needs to move back to the centre ground of politics, whereas Jeremy Corbyn has shifted it leftwards.” This poses the question: what’s so good about the centre ground?
It’s not that ...
We heard yesterday a neat example of BBC’s ideology. On Broadcasting House, Paddy O’Connell asked people about the “personality of the market”:
It’s an angry toddler, a fickle teenager, an ex-lover you can’t shake off, your master, your slave…an attention-seeking drama queen (21'03" in)
The horrible mixedness ...
In a comment here, Unlearning Economics says that there are some people “who consistently beat the market, which contradicts the efficient markets hypothesis.” I agree. But this is not a problem for the EMH so much as for all economics.
I say this because there are, ...