Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”


April 23, 2017, 8:35 am, 1740187

Labour wants us to have more bank holidays. There might be a good economic case for this.

My chart hints at the point. It shows that, across 35 OECD nations, there is a very strong negative correlation (of minus 0.77) between annual working hours and ...


April 21, 2017, 8:35 am, 1739791

On the Today programme this morning John Humphrys repeated an ancient ideological trick of the right. He asked (1’24” in):

Why should the British taxpayer when they see that there’s not enough money for instance for hospitals or schools…why should they be expected to [spend on ...


April 20, 2017, 8:35 am, 1739421

In some respects, it is the right who are Marxists and we leftists who are conservatives.

Take for example, this characterization of Marx:

The dictatorship of the proletariat…is characterized by majority rule, extra-legality, dismantling of the state apparatus and revocability of the representatives. (Jon Elster, Making ...


April 19, 2017, 6:35 am, 1739015

Was Blair right? Miles and Simon have been debating this.

Blair said (pdf):

I don’t care if there are people who earn a lot of money. They’re not my concern. I do care about people who are without opportunity, disadvantaged and poor.”


April 16, 2017, 8:35 am, 1738216

David Moyes says Jordan Pickford has been a better player than Dele Alli this season. This set me wondering about marginal productivity theory.

To see my point, think about how we’d test Moyes’ claim. We could look at what the two teams did in games which ...


April 13, 2017, 8:35 am, 1737633

“It doesn’t matter whether a cat is white or white, as long as it catches mice.” I was reminded of this quote from Deng Xiaoping by the debate between Simon, Brad and Unlearning Economics over the role of mainstream economics. For me, what matters isn’t ...


April 12, 2017, 8:35 am, 1737164

Watching some of Arsenal’s recent performances has been like seeing the debate about Syria – and not just in the sense that both are utterly dispiriting.

What I mean is that in both recall to me the wise words of Charlie Munger – that “knowing the ...


April 10, 2017, 10:35 am, 1736395

One question that was doing the rounds on Twitter over the weekend was: would you rather have a big trust fund or sporting ability that enabled you to earn similar money?

The question makes sense because a trust fund and athletic potential are both things we inherit ...


April 7, 2017, 10:34 am, 1735837

Jonathan Portes makes a vitally important point – that statistics are reality. Apparently arid numbers summarize the lived experience of real people. As Raymond Wolfinger said, “the plural of anecdote is data”. Statistics tell us about facts, whereas anecdotes are subject to sampling error.

Sadly, ...


April 6, 2017, 8:34 am, 1735477

Sensible right-wingers should support Labour's plan to impose VAT on private schools.

Let’s start from the fact that Labour wants to “bash the rich”, and you’ll not convince them otherwise. The question therefore is whether to do this by taxing their incomes or taxing their ...