Technical Problems 1/21/15
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May 2014 Payroll Employment
After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Stumbling and Mumbling
"An extremist, not a fanatic”
Here's Leicester manager Nigel Pearson talking about tonight's game against Man City:
Do I expect any backlash or do I take encouragement from their recent results? I think a bit of both.
This is an example of how mistaken beliefs can cancel out. On the ...
In the day job, I point out that it is impossible for young people to save optimally for their retirement. This isn't just because of the well-known problems of weakness of will or low incomes, but also because of unavoidable uncertainties about how future tastes and ...
I'm in two minds about Frances' critique of macroeconomics. A bit of me disagrees, but a bit thinks she might be understating the problem.
First, a disagreement. In one respect, the 2008 crisis actually strengthened economics. The investor who followed the sell in May ...
Simon's claim that fiscal austerity has been a disaster reminds me of a big bias in the media - the misuse of the word "cost".
Very often, when the press use the word "cost" to describe a policy, what they really mean is a transfer. ...
Ed Miliband is right. MPs should be banned from having paid directorships and consultancies. However, I don't say this for the conventional reasons.
It's not because such jobs distract MPs from their duties to voters and the country. The way to stop an MP doing ...
I probably shouldn't say so in these censorious times, but I have a little sympathy for Sir Malcolm Rifkind's desire "to have the standard of living that my professional background would normally entitle me to have."
Of course, an MP's salary of Â£67,060pa is high ...
The juxtaposition of David Cameron's claim that we have a "fundamental duty" to care for pensioners with the FT's story that 20-somethings have low incomes after housing costs reminds us that intergenerational justice is now a big issue.
But I wonder: is this ...
I say so because otherwise we risk being misled by cognitive biases.
One of these ...
In a superb piece Frankie Boyle raises the question of what counts as punching up:
You might have imagined that routines "punching up" against the big targets of the day would have to involve the international banking system; the arms industry; or even just the fact that ...
Experimental evidence suggests that Marx was right.
In Capital, Marx describes the selling of labour power thus:
He, who before was the money-owner, now strides in front as capitalist; the possessor of labour-power follows as his labourer. The one with an air of importance, smirking, intent ...