Economics Roundtable

Database Maintenance 7/4/15

Routine database maintenance will induce some duplicated items for the next day or two.


May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


Click on the chart for a larger version.


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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”


July 31, 2015, 10:34 am, 1519377

Simon Jenkins' and James Kirkup's proposals to privatize lions to protect them has been derided by some as "peak Telegraph" and knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing. This, I fear, highlights the poverty of debate about the use of markets ...


July 30, 2015, 10:34 am, 1518543

Jeremy Corbyn's economic policy deserves more attention than it's getting.

It seems to me that this comprises two necessarily related elements. One is higher corporate taxes: he wants to "strip out some of the huge tax reliefs and subsidies on offer to the corporate ...


July 28, 2015, 10:34 am, 1516916

Here are some things we've seen recently:

 - Andy Haldane says shareholder capitalism is too short-termist, without asking whether it is possible to change this, or whether short-termism might in fact be a rational response to massive uncertainty about technical change ...


July 27, 2015, 10:34 am, 1516175

Talking about the "glass floor" which limits social mobility, Alan Milburn says:

It’s a social scandal that all too often demography is still destiny.

This is true in a far bigger way than Mr Milburn means. There's a policy which suppresses social ...


July 25, 2015, 10:34 am, 1515577

A loyal reader has chastised my defence of welfare benefits for ignoring incentive effects. This deserves a reply.

The issue here is not about Osborne's welfare cuts, simply because these haven't, net, made much difference to incentives. On the one hand, ...


July 24, 2015, 10:34 am, 1515074

Tony Blair's speech this week, paradoxically, reminded us of the need for new, radical economic policies. He said:

The most important characteristic of this world is: the scope, scale and speed of change. Change defines it.

Let's leave aside the obvious snark that one thing ...


July 23, 2015, 10:34 am, 1514257

When Graham Dilley went out to bat in the famous 1981 Headingley test match, Ian Botham told him that "we wouldn't survive long just blocking, so we might as well have a swing." This same reasoning, I suspect, explains Labour members support for Jeremy Corbyn.


July 21, 2015, 10:34 am, 1512766

Last night's vote on the Welfare Bill shows that Labour is divided. The division though, isn't so much between left and right as between reality and the Bubble.

The Bill will cost the poorest (pdf) families hundreds of pounds per year,


July 19, 2015, 8:34 am, 1511774

I like Paul Bernal's description of Blairites as like Elvis impersonators who only impersonate the old, fat conservative rather than the younger radical man.

I'd add that one way in which this is true is that the young Blair had a distinctive economic narrative. Globalization ...


July 16, 2015, 10:34 am, 1510327

There is, understandably, a backlash against the government's proposal that women who want to claim tax credits for a third child must prove they have been raped. For me, this highlights the importance of the John Cushnie principle.

Mr Cushnie was ...