January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Stumbling and Mumbling
"An extremist, not a fanatic”
I didn't for one moment think that the UK's sexism problem was worse ...
Real wages are probably rising. The ONS estimates that nominal wages rose 1.9% in the year to February - though there's a big sampling error - whilst CPI inflation then was 1.7%. This, though, might have a downside.
I say this because a plausible reason ...
Today's news that CPI inflation has fallen to its lowest rate since October 2009 poses the question: what is the relationship between unemployment and inflation?
The fact that the fall comes after months of falling joblessness is awkward for conventional Phillips curve-type thinking, ...
Most people, says Arnold Kling, are "labor-capitalists":
Looking at the 21st-century economy through the filter of the Marxist categories of “capital” and “labor” is not particularly insightful. This is not a good era for either a plain coupon-clipper or an ordinary worker to accumulate great wealth.
He points to some "new advances in fundamental science" and says:
We cannot even imagine the advances in all areas of science – from genetics ...
Last night, Laurie Penny tweeted: "Like many others I know, I'm trying to find a way of making it more viable to produce more of those longform, deeply-researched pieces."
Gawd help us. When will people realize that brevity and concision are virtues? I ask for ...
In all the fuss about Maria Miller's resignation, a simple point has been ignored - that the issue here is a mainstream economic one. It's the principal-agent problem. How can principals (voters) ensure that their agents (MPs) behave in ways they want (keeping their hands out ...
Rob Lowe, one of the stars of the greatest TV show ever made* has drawn our attention to a dilemma for leftist politics. He says: "There's this unbelievable bias and prejudice against quote-unquote good-looking people."
In one big sense this is plain false. ...
My immediate reaction to news that the ONS is going to raise its measure of GDP was: what does that do to estimates of the output gap?
In one sense, the answer is: nothing. The ONS is not so much revising GDP as redefining it; ...
At the gym yesterday, my eye was caught by the TV on the cross-trainer next to me flashing up a caption saying that 41% of voters think Ed Miliband is weird* (23'50" in). This is sinister, and not just because of the implicit tone of repressive ...