Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”


May 26, 2017, 8:35 am, 1750925

I don’t think commentators have drawn the right inferences from the mess May made over social care policy.

The problem is not that she made a U-turn: if you’re heading in the wrong direction, a U-turn is a good idea. Instead, the episode reveals a ...


May 25, 2017, 8:35 am, 1750610

I’ve written before about how inequality perpetuates itself through differences in confidence: people from rich backgrounds have the chutzpah to blag good jobs for which they are unqualified, whilst those from poorer backgrounds have confidence knocked out of them. However, a new paper by David ...


May 21, 2017, 6:35 am, 1749410

Theresa May claims there’s no such thing as Mayism. I don’t know about that. What puzzles me, though, is that there don’t seem to be any obvious Mayites.

To see what I mean, contrast May and Thatcher. Thatcher had two things which May seems to lack.


May 19, 2017, 8:35 am, 1749078

In the Wheatsheaf last night, I was struck by an obvious injustice. The pub was charging everybody the same price for beer, regardless of their income. This is obviously unfair: why should the millionaire picking up his children from the posh school pay the same as a low-wage ...


May 18, 2017, 10:35 am, 1748782

For years, economists have believed that competition tends to equalize profits across firms, as inefficient firms either learn from better ones or go out of business, and as new firms enter markets and so compete away high profits. Several things, however, suggest that we need to change our ...


May 17, 2017, 8:35 am, 1748416

Many of the most common arguments against Labour’s policies are laughably bad – such as the claim that people earning a little over £80,000 a year will have to pay very much more tax; or the idea that higher top taxes wreck the economy; or ...


May 16, 2017, 10:35 am, 1748095

Rich people don’t like paying taxes. This is pretty much the only thing we’ve learned from some of the hysterical reaction in the papers to Labour’s plan to raise taxes on the rich.

Let’s remember the historical facts here. Low tax rates aren’t associated with ...


May 13, 2017, 8:35 am, 1747273

Is austerity counter-productive even in microeconomic terms? I ask because the ransomware attack on the NHS seems to have been dues at least in part to a lack of spending on IT. The Register says:

The NHS is thought to have been particularly hard hit because ...


May 12, 2017, 10:35 am, 1746986

John Humphrys gave us a good example of the BBC’s bias this morning – and it’s not the sort you might think.

In discussing the Bank of England’s forecast that real wages will continue to fall this year, he asked (2”10’ in): “are we going to ...


May 11, 2017, 10:36 am, 1746558

The Times recently reported on a discussion with a voter in Hull:

“I’m not really into any of that stuff” said Cody, 22, our waitress at the Goldenfry chip shop. “I think I voted Labour at the referendum thing but I’m not sure.”

This highlights an ...