Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”

August 25, 2015, 8:34 am, 1533714

Yesterday's big stock market falls pose the question: do we really have anything to worry about?

It's tempting to answer: no. The claim that stock markets have predicted nine of the last five recessions is a cliche because it is true - although why (pdf) ...

August 22, 2015, 6:34 am, 1532591

Gillian Tett points out that, despite talk of a technology boom, corporate investment is weak. This isn't as paradoxical as it seems. In fact, techno-optimism might be one reason for low investment.

I say so for a simple reason: future technical progress could well render ...

August 20, 2015, 10:34 am, 1531602

David Aaronovitch in the Times has a nice piece on how people fall for conspiracy theorists and conmen:

What a fraudster, a fantasist or a hoaxer needs to be able to survive, is to fall among people who are anxious to believe.

This urge to believe is not ...

August 19, 2015, 10:34 am, 1530913

Last night I went to a ballroom dance lesson, which set me thinking about the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis.

When you are a rank beginner, the natural thing to do is to speak as you are moving: "left-forward-back" and so on. But this of course confuses your ...

August 18, 2015, 10:34 am, 1530231

There are two common objections to Corbynomics (pdf) which seem to be to be misplaced.

The first is that it is out-of-date. "A howl for the past" says John van Reenen. "Old solutions to old problems" says Yvette Cooper.

I'm ...

August 17, 2015, 10:34 am, 1529539

One of the more irritating memes of the Labour leadership election has been the use of the word "credible". For example, Gordon Brown says "the best way of realising our high ideals is to show that we have an alternative in government that is credible." Yvette ...

August 16, 2015, 8:34 am, 1529236

It's not often that Sir Tom Jones provides evidence to support Mariana Mazzucato, but he's done just this.

Here's the FT's John Thornhill:  

As Mazzucato explains it, the traditional way of framing the debate about wealth creation is to picture the private sector as ...

August 15, 2015, 10:34 am, 1529007

Marxists and Conservatives have more in common than either side would like to admit. This thought occurred to me whilst reading a superb piece by Andrew Lilico.

He describes the Brams-Taylor procedure for cutting a cake in a fair way - in ...

August 13, 2015, 10:34 am, 1527793

Imagine you were running a business and were looking to hire someone for a well-paid job that was crucial for your company's success. However, all the applicants for the job seem inadequate and the last two people who did the job were duds who have weakened your company. ...

August 11, 2015, 10:34 am, 1526410

How reliable is personal experience? This a question raised by Janan Ganesh in the FT. He writes:

Modern London is excelsis. It has taken the free movement of people, goods, services, capital and ideas to anarchic extremes that might have no precedent.
Anyone ...