Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”

May 3, 2016, 10:35 am, 1632475

Hundreds of pieces will soon be written on what business “leaders” can learn from Leicester City’s triumph. I suspect, though, that the biggest lesson will be ignored – that it vindicates William Goldman’s famous remark that “nobody knows anything.”

City’s players are, mostly, a ragbag ...

May 1, 2016, 8:34 am, 1631772

Just 12 months ago, Labour had a Jewish leader. Today, we’re told, it has a problem with antisemitism. How can this be?

It might be useful to distinguish between two forms of racism: verbal, and structural. Although the two often go together, they need not. For example, ...

April 29, 2016, 10:35 am, 1631270

Reading this tosh makes me wonder: is Mesut Ozil being unjustly criticized for the same reason that George Osborne has escaped sufficient public censure for his failure to cut government borrowing as much as he predicted?

The common link is that people over-rate the role ...

April 28, 2016, 10:35 am, 1630803

Here are two things I’ve seen recently. First, there’s Simon on the junior doctors’ dispute:

The NHS works on relatively meagre resources because of the goodwill of those that work within it. Do we really think that facing down UK doctors is the way to get ...

April 27, 2016, 6:34 am, 1630316

The truth about Hillsborough has of course always been known. What happened yesterday was that it finally became incontrovertible. I fear, though, that the context of Hillsborough is in danger of being forgotten – that context being that the 1980s was an era of moral panic ...

April 26, 2016, 10:34 am, 1629981

Richard Murphy writes:

[The government and OBR] believe that austerity generates growth and so cuts the deficit. The trouble for them is that all the evidence shows that the opposite is true: cuts shrink national income and government spending increasesit.

This has attracted cheap abuse from some ...

April 23, 2016, 8:34 am, 1629333

In a thought-provoking piece, Jeremy Gilbert writes:

Hardly anyone looks back to the epoch of full employment as one which seems remotely culturally attractive. We might entertain time-travel fantasies of visiting Harlem in the 20s, Haight-Ashbury in 1967, or Paris at various points in the 19th or 20th ...

April 19, 2016, 10:34 am, 1627926

It’s fitting that Mervyn King should have been a director at Aston Villa – because that job, like his previous one, has given him a close-up view of the failure of mainstream economics.

I’m referring to the idea that wages equal marginal product. Aston Villa’s wage ...

April 16, 2016, 10:34 am, 1627233

George Monbiot says that the left hasn’t come to terms with “neoliberalism.” His piece shows why. It might be that “neoliberalism” is not so much a coherent intellectual project as a series of opportunistic ad hoc uses of capitalist power.

To see this, consider two paradoxes. ...

April 14, 2016, 8:34 am, 1626607

Here’s Robin Hanson on education:

School can have people practice habits that will be useful in jobs, such as showing up on time, doing what you are told…figuring out ambiguous instructions and accepting being frequently and publicly ranked…Schools work best when they set up [a] process ...