Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”


March 22, 2017, 10:34 am, 1730762

James O’Brien tweeted yesterday:

McGuinness was both a murderous terrorist & a powerful force for peace. He changed. Our furiously binary zeitgeist can't compute such change.

I want to expand on this, because it tells us something about the nature of politics generally.

I ...


March 21, 2017, 10:34 am, 1730438

There’s a link between two of the biggest political stories of the last few days: David Davis’ admission that he hasn’t yet done a calculation of the costs of the UK leaving the EU without a trade deal; and George Osborne’s getting a £200,000 a year ...


March 16, 2017, 10:34 am, 1729196

At the Battle of Copenhagen in 1801, Admiral Hyde Parker sent Horatio Nelson the order to retreat. Nelson allegedly raised his telescope to his blind eye, declared “I really do not see the signal”, continued fighting and won the battle.

I was reminded of this by ...


March 15, 2017, 6:35 am, 1728753

Several people on Twitter yesterday reminded us of Liam Fox’s vision of a deregulated labour market:

we must begin by deregulating the labour market. Political objections must be overridden. It is too difficult to hire and fire and too expensive to take on new employees.


March 14, 2017, 10:34 am, 1728450

Jeremy Corbyn has been getting a lot of stick recently, much of it justified: he seems to be the Henry VI of our time – obsessed with his own piety to the neglect of day-to-day politics despite massive and obvious dangers. Nevertheless, he made a very good and ...


March 13, 2017, 10:34 am, 1728082

It’s increasingly difficult to distinguish between serious journalism and the Daily Mash. So it is with this piece from the excellent Andrew Hill, who describes how:

executives and entrepreneurs are “microdosing” on illicit substances and submitting to transcranial magnetic stimulation — normally used to treat depression ...


March 9, 2017, 10:34 am, 1727156

The two main news stories this morning both gave us an insight into how capitalist power works.

The first item is the increase in NICs despite repeated Tory promises not to do so. It would be nice to think this will lead to a backlash ...


March 7, 2017, 10:34 am, 1726352

I have size ten feet. This is a biological fact which I cannot change. In some contexts, it’s of utmost importance, such as in a shoe shop. In other contexts, though, it’s irrelevant.

This might sound utterly trivial. But it’s why I agree with Phil that ...


March 6, 2017, 10:34 am, 1725987

Philip Hammond says he plans to use Wednesday’s Budget to get us “match fit” for Brexit. This reminds me of an old error of Chancellors and political commentators – their habit of under-estimating just how damned difficult it is to increase long-run growth.

In fact, John ...


March 4, 2017, 8:34 am, 1725661

David Olusoga says we British should be more aware of our role in the slave trade. I agree.

For one thing, slavery is not just (just!) a crime against humanity that many would like to forget. Its effects are still with us. Avidit Acharya, Matthew Blackwell ...