Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

RSS Feed

Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”

October 27, 2016, 8:34 am, 1687319

It’s a commonplace that politics is becoming more polarized and tribal: think of Remainers vs Brexiters or Trumpites vs Clintonites. This isn’t simply because people have retreated into intellectual trenches in which they associate only with the like-minded and get their news only from sources that echo their ...

October 26, 2016, 8:34 am, 1686912

Phil McDuff complains about the portrayal of the white working class as a “howling mass” whose “concerns” about immigration must be heeded.

This poses a question: why do we hear so much about the racism of the white working class and so little about the racism of ...

October 25, 2016, 8:34 am, 1686488

One of the more curious recent opinion poll findings has been that people are unwilling to pay to control immigration. A Yougov poll found that 62% would pay nothing to reduce net migration from the EU, and that only 15% would pay 5% of their income to ...

October 21, 2016, 8:34 am, 1685585

The Sun wants the BBC to sack Gary Lineker for “peddling lies.” Let’s leave aside the fact that the Sun is much better at peddling lies that Mr Lineker ever will be. What this shows, yet again, is that the right is now the enemy of freedom.

October 20, 2016, 10:34 am, 1685253

“Being in politics is like being a football coach. You have to be smart enough to understand the game, and dumb enough to think it's important.” This piece by Simon Head on the decline of British business reminds me of these words by Eugene McCarthy.

Simon ...

October 19, 2016, 8:34 am, 1684867

The Tories seem to be undermining the Bank of England’s independence. First, Theresa May says there “have been some bad side effects” of low interest rates: “people with assets have got richer…people with savings have found themselves poorer. A change has got to come.” ...

October 18, 2016, 8:34 am, 1684497

Angus Armstrong has a good piece on sterling’s fall. I just want to add one point, which my chart makes.

It plots sterling’s trade-weighted index against UK non-oil exports relative to world trade volumes.

If a fall in the pound leads to ...

October 16, 2016, 8:34 am, 1684024

Nick Cohen says the far left is gripped by anti-western illiberalism and the Home Affairs select committee accuses it of anti-Semitism. Do these accusations apply to me? I don’t think so – but not for reasons that reflect any credit on me.

I have never ...

October 15, 2016, 8:34 am, 1683893

The Adam Smith Institute is rebranding itself as “neoliberal”. I'm not sure this is a good idea.

I say this not because I disagree with them – though I do on some matters – but because of the respects in which I agree with them.

October 14, 2016, 8:34 am, 1683631

The opposite of a great truth is another great truth. I was reminded of this, well, great truth by George Monbiot’s claim that modern capitalism is creating loneliness. This is partly true.

The geographical mobility required by labour market “flexibility” can break up families and cause ...