January 2014 Payroll Employment
We are getting closer to the previous peak.
Click on the image to get a bigger version.
The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .
Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?
Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.
Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?
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Stumbling and Mumbling
"An extremist, not a fanatic”
Some (female) tweeters have expressed exasperation at the amount of coverage given to David Moyes' sacking. I'm not sure they're right. Football is about more than 22 men chasing a ball. It also lets in light upon what is normally ...
"British workers are hit hard by unlimited cheap labour" says one poster. However, in theory this would be ...
An old speech by Tom Sargent has had some praise and some criticism. But what would a more heterodox list of 12 economic principles look like? Here's my effort, observing Sargent's constraints of concision and relevance for young people starting out in ...
The question arises because in gardening, context matters. The point isn't simply to find good plants, but to put ...
I didn't for one moment think that the UK's sexism problem was worse ...
Real wages are probably rising. The ONS estimates that nominal wages rose 1.9% in the year to February - though there's a big sampling error - whilst CPI inflation then was 1.7%. This, though, might have a downside.
I say this because a plausible reason ...
Today's news that CPI inflation has fallen to its lowest rate since October 2009 poses the question: what is the relationship between unemployment and inflation?
The fact that the fall comes after months of falling joblessness is awkward for conventional Phillips curve-type thinking, ...
Most people, says Arnold Kling, are "labor-capitalists":
Looking at the 21st-century economy through the filter of the Marxist categories of â€ścapitalâ€ť and â€ślaborâ€ť is not particularly insightful. This is not a good era for either a plain coupon-clipper or an ordinary worker to accumulate great wealth.
He points to some "new advances in fundamental science" and says:
We cannot even imagine the advances in all areas of science â€“ from genetics ...
Last night, Laurie Penny tweeted: "Like many others I know, I'm trying to find a way of making it more viable to produce more of those longform, deeply-researched pieces."
Gawd help us. When will people realize that brevity and concision are virtues? I ask for ...