Economics Roundtable

January 2014 Payroll Employment

We are getting closer to the previous peak.

Click on the image to get a bigger version.


The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”

April 17, 2014, 10:35 am, 1257006

Sometimes, it's the little words that reveal so much. I was struck by Phil's response to Rashida Manjoo's claim that sexism is worse in the UK than elsewhere. He writes:

I didn't for one moment think that the UK's sexism problem was worse ...

April 16, 2014, 8:35 am, 1256271

Real wages are probably rising. The ONS estimates that nominal wages rose 1.9% in the year to February - though there's a big sampling error - whilst CPI inflation then was 1.7%. This, though, might have a downside.

I say this because a plausible reason ...

April 15, 2014, 10:36 am, 1255735

Today's news that CPI inflation has fallen to its lowest rate since October 2009 poses the question: what is the relationship between unemployment and inflation?

The fact that the fall comes after months of falling joblessness is awkward for conventional Phillips curve-type thinking, ...

April 14, 2014, 10:35 am, 1255155

Most people, says Arnold Kling, are "labor-capitalists":

Looking at the 21st-century economy through the filter of the Marxist categories of “capital” and “labor” is not particularly insightful. This is not a good era for either a plain coupon-clipper or an ordinary worker to accumulate great wealth.

April 12, 2014, 8:36 am, 1254628

George Osborne tried yesterday to reject the idea that we've fallen into secular stagnation. I'm not convinced.

He points to some "new advances in fundamental science" and says:

We cannot even imagine the advances in all areas of science – from genetics ...

April 11, 2014, 10:36 am, 1254230

Last night, Laurie Penny tweeted: "Like many others I know, I'm trying to find a way of making it more viable to produce more of those longform, deeply-researched pieces."

Gawd help us. When will people realize that brevity and concision are virtues? I ask for ...

April 10, 2014, 10:35 am, 1253627

In all the fuss about Maria Miller's resignation, a simple point has been ignored - that the issue here is a mainstream economic one. It's the principal-agent problem. How can principals (voters) ensure that their agents (MPs) behave in ways they want (keeping their hands out ...

April 9, 2014, 10:35 am, 1252949

Rob Lowe, one of the stars of the greatest TV show ever made* has drawn our attention to a dilemma for leftist politics. He says: "There's this unbelievable bias and prejudice against quote-unquote good-looking people."

In one big sense this is plain false. ...

April 8, 2014, 10:35 am, 1252335

My immediate reaction to news that the ONS is going to raise its measure of GDP was: what does that do to estimates of the output gap?

In one sense, the answer is: nothing. The ONS is not so much revising GDP as redefining it; ...

April 7, 2014, 10:35 am, 1251798

At the gym yesterday, my eye was caught by the TV on the cross-trainer next to me flashing up a caption saying that 41% of voters think Ed Miliband is weird* (23'50" in). This is sinister, and not just because of the implicit tone of repressive ...