Economics Roundtable

May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .

Click on the image to get a bigger version.

Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.

Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?

Click on the chart for a larger version.


The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.

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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”

June 30, 2016, 10:35 am, 1649812

In a typically brilliant essay Will Davies writes:

The slogan ‘take back control’ was a piece of political genius. It worked on every level between the macroeconomic and the psychoanalytic…What was so clever about the language of the Leave campaign was that it spoke directly to ...

June 29, 2016, 6:35 am, 1649397

The search for a new England manager, new Tory leader and perhaps new Labour leader too brings an under-appreciated question into focus: what exactly can leadership achieve?

In the Times today, Matthew Syed decries the “ludicrous idea that everything would be well if only we could find ...

June 28, 2016, 10:35 am, 1649130

The costs of fiscal austerity, and of this wretched government’s incompetence, are vastly higher than even its critics appreciate.

I say this because of a new paper by Markus Brueckner and Hans Peter Gruener which shows that “lower growth rates are associated with a significant ...

June 26, 2016, 10:35 am, 1648576

Among the many people and organizations to have had a bad referendum campaign, one has so far gone under-remarked: the BBC. The campaign has highlighted profound inadequacies in its current affairs reporting. I mean this in three ways.

First, in being impartial between truth and lies, the ...

June 25, 2016, 4:35 am, 1648383

The proposed vote of no-confidence in Jeremy Corbyn worries me: I fear it is based in part upon three motives that are wrong, one of which is plain vicious.

The first of these wrong motives is that Mr Corbyn was only half-hearted in campaigning for Remain. ...

June 22, 2016, 10:35 am, 1647504

It’s time to ditch the idea of meritocracy. That’s the message of James Bloodworth’s excellent little book, The Myth of Meritocracy. He shows that Britain is far from being a meritocracy: the privately educated do far better than the state-educated; even within the state sector the best ...

June 21, 2016, 8:35 am, 1647111

Whilst I was away, the nation celebrated the Queen’s 90th birthday. Nobody has noted that such celebrations suggest an under-appreciated conservative reason to vote Remain.

The point is that, in doing her job so well, the Queen has taken an issue off the political agenda – the ...

June 20, 2016, 8:35 am, 1646777

At the start of the EU referendum campaign, I was mildly in favour of Remain. My position has changed. It is now strongly for Remain.

This is not another example of asymmetric Bayesianism. Had the debate been a high-minded one about the merits of the ...

June 17, 2016, 10:35 am, 1646248

The EU referendum raises a longstanding question in welfare economics discussed, for example, in this paper (pdf) by Daniel Hausman: why should we pay attention to people’s preferences?

The standard answer is that people know what is best for themselves -or at least that their mistakes ...

June 1, 2016, 10:35 am, 1641546

Simon Wren-Lewis laments the failure of the centre-left to offer a radical response to the financial crisis, the legacy of which is of course still with us. This raises a paradox – that the centre-left is weaker politically than intellectually.

What I mean is that there ...