Economics Roundtable

NOTICE 9/30/177

The Economics Roundtable website has been up and running for a couple of days now. Further periods of testing will be necessary. The RSS feed is still not working. The left sidebar links are also probably not updating correctly.

The problems were caused by updates to the programming language php and to the Apache operating system. It is taking time to track down the problems this causes with my system. - Bill Parke

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Stumbling and Mumbling

"An extremist, not a fanatic”


September 28, 2017, 8:39 am, 1780375

Theresa May’s speech this morning was trailed as a defence of free market capitalism. If that’s what it was, it failed because she failed to answer the big questions.

May said:

A free market economy, operating under the right rules and regulations, is the ...


September 27, 2017, 8:39 am, 1779918

It’s sometimes said – usually by those who know nothing about Marxism – that John McDonnell is a Marxist. In one sense, this is the exact opposite of the truth: it is not McDonnell who is the Marxist, but his critics.

To see what I mean, remember ...


September 26, 2017, 9:08 am, 1779476

Nick Clegg spoke for many critics of Labour’s ambiguity towards Brexit when he said:

You cannot end austerity if you don't end Brexit. Ending austerity and proceeding with Brexit are incompatible with each other.

There’s some truth in this. Brexit means slower economic growth than ...


September 25, 2017, 8:39 am, 1779076

It’s insufficiently appreciated that political differences are due not just to different values but to differences in what people think important. 

To take an obvious example, leftists are concerned about inequality whilst many free market rightists tend to be relaxed about it.

Conversely, the free market ...


September 23, 2017, 8:09 am, 1778726

What’s the best way of protecting vulnerable workers? Two things I’ve seen recently poses this question.

First, Daniel Pryor notes that higher minimum wages do destroy some jobs, such as those of young unskilled ones in jobs that can be automated. And then James Bloodworth points ...


September 20, 2017, 8:09 am, 1777480

The Resolution Foundation points out that people are spending three times as much of their incomes on housing today than they were 50 years ago, and that 30-year-olds spend more of their income on housing than did their grandparents at the same age.

You can see ...


September 19, 2017, 9:08 am, 1777085

For months the Times has been running a series of columns on how centrists are befuddled by Corbynism. The often-admirable Nick Cohen has joined this trend.

His piece contains a big grain of truth – that Corbyn “won the left-behind middle class.” Not only are Labour ...


September 14, 2017, 9:08 am, 1775486

Frances Coppola says that in developed economies:

Wages have not kept pace with productivity for the whole of the 21st century. Workers' wages simply don't reflect their marginal productivity any more.

However, this is perhaps not so true in the UK as it is in ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773858

People who care about things like evidence and prosperity have pointed out that proposals to limit EU immigration after Brexit are bad for the economy. It’s not sufficient, however, merely to point out facts. We must also ask: why – of all the ...


September 12, 2017, 1:19 pm, 1773857

Here’s a conjecture: the rise of “post-truth” politics (defined by the OED as a process whereby “objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than emotional appeals”) is in part the product of deindustrialization.

What I mean is that in manufacturing, facts defeat ...