Economics Roundtable

March 2017 Fed Funds Rate

What is the effect of a 0.25% change in the Fed Funds rate?.

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March 2017 Payroll Employment

Payroll employment has not grown impressively since 2000. Some baby-boomers retired, but that does not totally account for this graph.

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May 2014 Payroll Employment

After 76 months, we finally got back to the prerecession level of payroll employment.

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Jobs

The best summary of the state of our economy is the graph (below) of employment as a fraction of population for people over 16 years old. The decrease is large, but the most troubling feature of the graph is the flat trend .


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Graph-of-the-Year Candidates

Donald Marron likes European interest rates. Click on the image to get a bigger version. Can you find three distinct subperiods?

Brad DeLong favors the U.S. gdp gap.


Remember M1?

Money Supply M1 growth is now over 20% per year over a 12 month lag. M1 growth has touched 20% before, but not with excess reserves of $1.6 trillion. Where is M1 headed?


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EconModel

The Economics Roundtable is sponsored by EconModel.

The Classic Economic Models cover micro, macro, and financial markets.


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Money and Banking


June 26, 2017, 5:33 am, 1758297

Changes in financial regulation are having a profound impact on the demand for safe assets—assets with a fixed nominal value that may be converted at all times without loss into the means of payment. Not only is demand for safe assets on the rise, but the ability of the private ...


June 19, 2017, 9:33 am, 1756644

“…we expect to be cutting a lot out of Dodd-Frank because, frankly, I have so many people, friends of mine that have nice businesses that can't borrow money, they just can’t get any money because the banks won’t let them borrow because of the rules and regulations in Dodd-Frank....” President ...


June 12, 2017, 9:33 am, 1754979

“The advantages of competition and deregulation must be sought in ways that do not impair the payments system or subject it to interruptions and breakdowns.” James Tobin, “Financial Innovation and Deregulation in Perspective,” BOJ Monetary and Economic Studies, September 1985.

How will financial innovation alter the role of central ...


June 5, 2017, 9:33 am, 1753164

“The stability of the proportion of the national dividend accruing to labor […] is one of the most surprising, yet best-established, facts in the whole range of economic statistics [….] Indeed, […] the result remains a bit of a miracle.” J. M. Keynes, “Relative Movements of Real Wages and Profit,” ...


May 29, 2017, 9:33 am, 1751411

Economists have debated the relationship between inflation and unemployment at least since A.W. Phillips’s study of U.K. data from 1861 to 1957 was published 60 years ago. The idea that a tight or slack labor market should result in faster or slower wage gains seems like a natural ...


May 22, 2017, 9:33 am, 1749623

“… positive trends can sometimes evolve into prices that increase more than fundamentals justify.” Eric Rosengren, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, May 9, 2017.

The Federal Reserve’s annual stress test is the de facto capital planning regime for the largest U.S. banks. Not surprisingly, it comes ...


May 15, 2017, 9:33 am, 1747681

Guest post by Professor Lawrence J. White, NYU Stern School of Business

Overshadowed by the media attention to the proposed repeal of Obamacare, the House Financial Services Committee recently approved substantial changes in financial regulation. The House of Representatives may soon consider the proposed bill—the Financial CHOICE Act—which would ...


May 8, 2017, 9:33 am, 1745309

With Sunday’s election of President Emmanuel Macron, voters confirmed that France remains a bedrock of the euro area, buttressing the region’s financial markets. But political risks to the euro have not disappeared. In coming months, concerns probably will turn to Italy, where the leader of one popular party has called ...


May 1, 2017, 9:33 am, 1742762

“…the ability of U.S. regulators to assume control of the resolution process may be required to elicit cooperation from non-U.S. regulators in countries where a recapitalized SIFI operates.” Jane Lee Vris, Chair, National Bankruptcy Conference, March 17, 2017

“Frankly, if we were left with a bankruptcy-code only solution [in ...


April 24, 2017, 9:33 am, 1740425

“[T]he overall ability of entrepreneurship to facilitate … economic prosperity depends disproportionately on the … performance of a very small number of new firms.” Guzman and Stern, 2016.

For at least the past 30 years, the rate of U.S. business formation has been falling and the average age of ...