The Problem - II
Calculated Risk adds the the clearest picture of
the housing tailspin.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
The Problem - I
Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of
the problem we face.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Special Topic 8/4/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature a special listing for reaction to the
payroll employment figures
from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +42,000
BLS: -131,000/+71,000
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Special Topics 6/28/10
This week, the Roundtable will feature special listings for reaction to Wednesday's
CBO budget projections and the
payroll employment figures
from ADP on Wednesday and the BLS on Friday.
ADP: +13,000
BLS: -125,000/+83,000
CBO: Take your pick.
Click on the chart for a larger version.
Current Economic Conditions 6/5/10
James Hamilton summarizes the situation.
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Economics One (John Taylor)
"A Blog by John B. Taylor”
September 2, 2010, 4:35 am, 758869
The
Taylor rule says that the federal funds rate should equal 1.5 times the inflation rate plus .5 times the GDP gap plus 1. Currently the inflation rate is about 1.5 percent and the GDP gap is about -5 percent (using the average of the seven estimates of the ...
August 29, 2010, 2:35 pm, 756730
I write from Jackson Hole Wyoming as the early morning sun shines sharply on the Grand Tetons where I just spent a very enjoyable few days at the annual monetary conference. I have been coming to these Jackson Hole conferences on and off since the first one on monetary policy ...
August 24, 2010, 12:35 am, 753884
The Soviet Union used to provide me with plenty of current event stories to tell students in Economics 1 about the wastes and harms of price controls and central planning. But most first-year college students taking introductory economics this fall were born after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Those ...
August 20, 2010, 8:14 pm, 752886
The resilience of emerging market economies severely hit by the panic of 2008 is amazing, especially in comparison with the long emerging market crisis period of a decade ago. I have ...
August 20, 2010, 8:14 pm, 752885
The following is a reasonable summary, in my view, of the available evidence on the impacts of discretionary fiscal and monetary policy actions taken before, during, and after the recent financial crisis:
The available evidence…casts grave doubt on the possibility of producing any fine adjustments in economic activity by ...
August 20, 2010, 8:14 pm, 752883
Next Thursday March 25 the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on how the Fed should exit from its quantitative easing. This past week I was in Japan discussing the Japanese experience with QE with traders and experts in the financial sector and in the Bank of Japan. ...
August 20, 2010, 8:14 pm, 752884
In his
recent review in The New York Review of Books of my book Getting Off Track, Roger Alcaly makes a very interesting point about the “too low for too long” hypothesis, according to which the Fed helped cause the housing boom. I hear that some policymakers at the ...
August 20, 2010, 8:14 pm, 752881
The 3.2 percent growth rate of real GDP in the first quarter (released by BEA yesterday) confirms that the recovery is looking more U-shaped than V-shaped. But it also provides further ...
August 20, 2010, 8:14 pm, 752879
In a column
Central Banks are Losing Credibility published in the Financial Times last Tuesday, just after the announcement of the European rescue plan, I noted that the euro’s quick set-back hours after its initial boost was a harbinger of negative consequences. The euro's continued decline throughout last week ...
August 20, 2010, 8:14 pm, 752880
My column published last Monday May 3 in the Wall Street Journal “
How to Avoid a ‘Bailout Bill’” generated a lot of questions about the idea of a "Chapter ...
